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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. Западная Европа. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Secretloss 0:2
series probability
58%42%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Gaimin Gladiatorswin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Secret

Tusk
Tusksignature
Zayac · 22 games
68%
Chen
Chensignature
Puppey · 21 game
62%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakersignature
Resolut1on · 17 games
65%
Marci
Marcisignature
Zayac · 17 games
65%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Crystallis · 17 games
65%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinsignature
Zayac · 17 games
88%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
Resolut1on · 15 games
67%
Razor
Razoroften banned
Crystallis · 15 games
47%

Gaimin Gladiators

Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Ace · 14 games
57%
Io
Iosignature
Seleri · 10 games
60%
Marci
Marcioften banned
tOfu · 10 games
50%
Silencer
Silencersignature
tOfu · 10 games
60%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
tOfu · 9 games
56%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Seleri · 9 games
44%
Leshrac
Leshracoften banned
Quinn · 9 games
56%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
BOOM · 9 games
78%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
354 picks · 342 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
342 picks · 332 bans
58%
Mirana
Mirana
244 picks · 245 bans
54%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
224 picks · 147 bans
54%
Rubick
Rubick
218 picks · 179 bans
58%
Pangolier
Pangolier
208 picks · 546 bans
53%
Leshrac
Leshrac
199 picks · 418 bans
58%
Snapfire
Snapfire
194 picks · 111 bans
44%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 48%
Hero pool strength55% Team Secret
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total58% Team Secret
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed12:24
Team Secret 56%Gaimin Gladiators 44%
The model gave 56% on Team Secret — the game was taken by Gaimin Gladiators in 38:33.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sniper
SniperBOOM
50% · 65 games50% · 102 games
Nature's ProphetAce
Nature's Prophet
Dawnbreaker
DawnbreakerCrystallis
50% · 229 games40% · 133 games
LeshracQuinn
Leshrac
Death Prophet
Death ProphetResolut1on
50% · 273 games49% · 46 games
Slarkdyrachyo
Slark
Clockwerk
ClockwerkZayac
51% · 206 games53% · 567 games
TinytOfu
Tiny
Bane
BanePuppey
58% · 250 games48% · 175 games
IoSeleri
Io
Game 2prediction missed14:43
Team Secret 56%Gaimin Gladiators 44%
The model gave 56% on Team Secret — the game was taken by Gaimin Gladiators in 31:22.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Mirana
MiranaResolut1on
52% · 161 game53% · 84 games
Pudgedyrachyo
Pudge
Sven
SvenCrystallis
58% · 49 games53% · 69 games
Nature's ProphetAce
Nature's Prophet
Leshrac
LeshracBOOM
53% · 103 games54% · 109 games
KunkkaQuinn
Kunkka
Enchantress
EnchantressPuppey
41% · 131 game46% · 163 games
RubicktOfu
Rubick
Nyx Assassin
Nyx AssassinZayac
48% · 88 games46% · 107 games
Crystal MaidenSeleri
Crystal Maiden
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Secret · 58%
Series resultGaimin Gladiators 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2