Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 3 — Западная Европа · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Secretwin 2:0series probability
59%41%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Goonsquadloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Secret
Chaos Knightoften banned
SumaiL · 7 games
Clockwerksignature
Puppey · 7 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Nisha · 7 games
Enchantressoften banned
Puppey · 7 games
Iooften banned
Puppey · 7 games
Pangolieroften banned
Nisha · 7 games
Doomoften banned
Zayac · 6 games
Timbersawsignature
iceiceice · 6 games
Goonsquad
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
571 picks · 464 bans
Mars
434 picks · 671 bans
Dragon Knight
410 picks · 527 bans
Bane
390 picks · 261 bans
Puck
381 picks · 852 bans
Ember Spirit
336 picks · 640 bans
Pangolier
335 picks · 559 bans
Snapfire
331 picks · 161 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 50%
Hero pool strength51% Team Secret
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total59% Team Secret
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct35:20
Team Secret 59%Goonsquad 41%
The model gave 59% on Team Secret — the game was taken by Team Secret in 36:22.
Game 2prediction correct33:25
Team Secret 59%Goonsquad 41%
The model gave 59% on Team Secret — the game was taken by Team Secret in 44:55.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Secret · 59%
Series resultTeam Secret 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2