Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 1 — Европа 1-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Secretwin 2:0series probability
81%19%
probability at match start · final 2:0
High Coast Esportsloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Secret
Puckoften banned
Puppey · 4 games
Rubick
YapzOr · 4 games
Void Spiritoften banned
Nisha · 4 games
Nature's Prophetoften banned
zai · 3 games
Pangolieroften banned
zai · 3 games
Beastmasteroften banned
zai · 2 games
Chenoften banned
Puppey · 2 games
Dark Willow
YapzOr · 2 games
High Coast Esports
Earth Spirit
Era · 5 games
Marsoften banned
Chessie · 5 games
Shadow Demonoften banned
Xibbe · 5 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Charlie · 4 games
Juggernautoften banned
Charlie · 4 games
Nyx Assassinoften banned
Era · 4 games
Skywrath Mage
Era · 4 games
Invokeroften banned
Supream^ · 3 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
250 picks · 519 bans
Void Spirit
233 picks · 281 bans
Mars
207 picks · 380 bans
Earth Spirit
198 picks · 154 bans
Keeper of the Light
169 picks · 293 bans
Nyx Assassin
165 picks · 522 bans
Phoenix
165 picks · 190 bans
Wraith King
157 picks · 208 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)78% vs 33%
Hero pool strength57% Team Secret
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total81% Team Secret
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct31:11
Team Secret 70%High Coast Esports 30%
The model gave 70% on Team Secret — the game was taken by Team Secret in 36:05.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom AssassinMATUMBAMAN
LycanChessie
Pangolierzai
Void SpiritSupream^
TinyNisha
UrsaCharlie
EarthshakerYapzOr
GrimstrokeXibbe
Keeper of the LightPuppey
LionEra
Game 2prediction correct47:16
Team Secret 69%High Coast Esports 31%
The model gave 69% on Team Secret — the game was taken by Team Secret in 30:09.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom AssassinMATUMBAMAN
Nature's ProphetSupream^
ZeusNisha
Naga SirenCharlie
Beastmasterzai
Dark SeerChessie
Outworld DestroyerPuppey
Winter WyvernXibbe
TuskYapzOr
Earth SpiritEra
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Secret · 81%
Series resultTeam Secret 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2