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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. Западная Европа. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Secretwin 2:1
series probability
91%9%
probability at match start · final 2:1
IVYloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Secret

Tusk
Tusk
yamich · 11 games
45%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
BOOM · 9 games
67%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Armel · 8 games
63%
Mirana
Miranasignature
Puppey · 8 games
63%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Crystallis · 7 games
57%
Drow Ranger
Drow Rangersignature
Crystallis · 6 games
67%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Puppey · 6 games
67%
Leshrac
Leshracoften banned
Resolut1on · 6 games
17%

IVY

Mirana
Mirana
Qupe · 27 games
52%
Tiny
Tiny
Qupe · 20 games
40%
Tusk
Tusk
Mo13ei · 19 games
53%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Qupe · 17 games
65%
Leshrac
Leshracoften banned
pio65 · 17 games
41%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Qupe · 13 games
23%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
jmn- · 13 games
31%
Luna
Luna
pio65 · 12 games
33%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
995 picks · 693 bans
48%
Tiny
Tiny
645 picks · 478 bans
52%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
592 picks · 944 bans
54%
Disruptor
Disruptor
543 picks · 402 bans
55%
Tusk
Tusk
539 picks · 423 bans
48%
Snapfire
Snapfire
530 picks · 368 bans
45%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
516 picks · 1204 bans
50%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
506 picks · 384 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 42%
Hero pool strength56% Team Secret
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total91% Team Secret
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct34:6
Team Secret 77%IVY 23%
The model gave 77% on Team Secret — the game was taken by Team Secret in 26:57.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Beastmaster
BeastmasterArmel
63% · 255 games42% · 73 games
Phantom Assassinxannii
Phantom Assassin
Monkey King
Monkey KingCrystallis
53% · 178 games53% · 217 games
LeshracStojkov
Leshrac
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerBOOM
46% · 57 games48% · 504 games
RubickQupe
Rubick
Snapfire
SnapfirePuppey
48% · 342 games45% · 123 games
Jakirojmn-
Jakiro
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Mageyamich
51% · 85 games
Game 2prediction missed49:38
Team Secret 79%IVY 21%
The model gave 79% on Team Secret — the game was taken by IVY in 1:17:57.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeCrystallis
48% · 201 game42% · 217 games
Drow Rangerxannii
Drow Ranger
Death Prophet
Death ProphetArmel
51% · 331 game50% · 467 games
Ember SpiritStojkov
Ember Spirit
Beastmaster
BeastmasterBOOM
56% · 361 game53% · 479 games
MiranaQupe
Mirana
Silencer
SilencerPuppey
57% · 228 games44% · 560 games
Snapfirejmn-
Snapfire
Rubick
Rubickyamich
53% · 602 games
Game 3prediction correct34:5
Team Secret 79%IVY 21%
The model gave 79% on Team Secret — the game was taken by Team Secret in 26:12.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightArmel
53% · 270 games38% · 292 games
Ember Spiritxannii
Ember Spirit
Slark
SlarkCrystallis
58% · 168 games45% · 99 games
ViperStojkov
Viper
Beastmaster
BeastmasterBOOM
58% · 389 games42% · 243 games
SnapfireQupe
Snapfire
Dark Willow
Dark Willowyamich
58% · 66 games44% · 332 games
Rubickjmn-
Rubick
Warlock
WarlockPuppey
64% · 73 games
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Secret · 91%
Series resultTeam Secret 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3