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The International 2022 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Secretwin 2:0
series probability
30%70%
probability at match start · final 2:0
LGD Gamingloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Secret

Chen
Chensignature
Puppey · 21 game
62%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Zayac · 19 games
79%
Razor
Razoroften banned
Crystallis · 18 games
44%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Crystallis · 16 games
75%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Puppey · 15 games
60%
Marci
Marcisignature
Zayac · 14 games
64%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakersignature
Resolut1on · 13 games
62%
Enigma
Enigmasignature
Resolut1on · 13 games
62%

LGD Gaming

Tiny
Tinysignature
XinQ · 19 games
79%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
Faith_bian · 15 games
73%
Razor
Razorsignature
Faith_bian · 15 games
80%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
NothingToSay · 14 games
86%
Dazzle
Dazzlesignature
y` · 11 games
91%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidsignature
Ame · 11 games
64%
Marci
Marcisignature
XinQ · 11 games
82%
Puck
Pucksignature
NothingToSay · 11 games
73%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
528 picks · 397 bans
52%
Marci
Marci
481 picks · 712 bans
53%
Undying
Undying
311 picks · 517 bans
54%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
306 picks · 473 bans
48%
Puck
Puck
290 picks · 682 bans
55%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
283 picks · 387 bans
46%
Enigma
Enigma
269 picks · 864 bans
58%
Pangolier
Pangolier
263 picks · 368 bans
55%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)53% vs 69%
Hero pool strength57% LGD Gaming
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total70% LGD Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed23:3
Team Secret 37%LGD Gaming 63%
The model gave 63% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by Team Secret in 23:11.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Leshrac
LeshracNisha
46% · 78 games54% · 20 games
Lone DruidAme
Lone Druid
Dawnbreaker
DawnbreakerCrystallis
43% · 153 games49% · 147 games
PangolierNothingToSay
Pangolier
Silencer
SilencerResolut1on
42% · 57 games55% · 123 games
EnigmaFaith_bian
Enigma
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaidenPuppey
44% · 43 games61% · 84 games
TuskXinQ
Tusk
Nyx Assassin
Nyx AssassinZayac
57% · 102 games46% · 59 games
Dazzley`
Dazzle
Game 2prediction missed52:33
Team Secret 42%LGD Gaming 58%
The model gave 58% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by Team Secret in 50:03.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Leshrac
LeshracNisha
52% · 127 games54% · 200 games
Monkey KingAme
Monkey King
Marci
MarciResolut1on
55% · 399 games44% · 140 games
ZeusNothingToSay
Zeus
Dawnbreaker
DawnbreakerCrystallis
38% · 280 games50% · 219 games
Death ProphetFaith_bian
Death Prophet
Nyx Assassin
Nyx AssassinZayac
56% · 137 games47% · 433 games
TinyXinQ
Tiny
Disruptor
DisruptorPuppey
55% · 102 games46% · 53 games
Lichy`
Lich
Model check result
Model favoriteLGD Gaming · 70%
Series resultTeam Secret 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2