DreamLeague Season 20 · BO2
result vs predictionseries probability
48%52%
probability at match start · final 1:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Secret
Mirana
Puppey · 10 games
Techiesoften banned
yamich · 10 games
Monkey Kingsignature
Crystallis · 9 games
Pugnaoften banned
yamich · 9 games
Tusk
yamich · 9 games
Ember Spiritsignature
Armel · 8 games
Magnusoften banned
Armel · 8 games
Primal Beastsignature
BOOM · 8 games
LGD Gaming
Phoenixsignature
pLAnet · 20 games
Pangoliersignature
NothingToSay · 19 games
Disruptor
pLAnet · 18 games
Beastmastersignature
zeal · 17 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
NothingToSay · 16 games
Miranasignature
pLAnet · 15 games
Keeper of the Lightsignature
pLAnet · 13 games
Rubicksignature
pLAnet · 13 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
751 picks · 635 bans
Disruptor
604 picks · 535 bans
Doom
532 picks · 1038 bans
Beastmaster
530 picks · 1308 bans
Ember Spirit
460 picks · 1172 bans
Pangolier
454 picks · 944 bans
Mirana
439 picks · 225 bans
Techies
438 picks · 454 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)45% vs 55%
Hero pool strength57% LGD Gaming
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total52% LGD Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed28:8
Team Secret 47%LGD Gaming 53%
The model gave 53% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by Team Secret in 42:20.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
WindrangerArmel
Muertashiro
Monkey KingCrystallis
SnapfireNothingToSay
PangolierFbz
Beastmasterniu
PugnaPuppey
Clockwerky`
Shadow Demonyamich
Skywrath MagepLAnet
Game 2prediction correct12:24
Team Secret 47%LGD Gaming 53%
The model gave 53% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by LGD Gaming in 34:01.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar AssassinArmel
Phantom Lancershiro
WindrangerCrystallis
Void SpiritNothingToSay
Spirit BreakerFbz
Magnusniu
MarciPuppey
Skywrath MagepLAnet
Rubickyamich
Lichy`
Model check result
Model favoriteLGD Gaming · 52%
Accuracy by game1 of 2