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Riyadh Masters 2024. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Secretloss 0:2
series probability
38%62%
probability at match start · final 0:2
MOUZwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Secret

Rubick
Rubick
Shishak · 20 games
40%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Ekki · 19 games
68%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Crystallis · 14 games
57%
Razor
Razorsignature
Crystallis · 14 games
64%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Puppey · 12 games
58%
Lifestealer
Lifestealeroften banned
Crystallis · 11 games
55%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
BOOM · 10 games
70%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Puppey · 10 games
30%

MOUZ

Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
bengan · 36 games
64%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
Ulnit · 31 game
61%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
Force · 29 games
72%
Tiny
Tinysignature
NARMAN · 29 games
62%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
bengan · 24 games
67%
Dark Seer
Dark Seeroften banned
Force · 21 game
48%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
Supream^ · 21 game
52%
Earthshaker
Earthshakersignature
NARMAN · 18 games
61%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
490 picks · 224 bans
52%
Tiny
Tiny
454 picks · 725 bans
53%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
439 picks · 628 bans
53%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
427 picks · 403 bans
50%
Batrider
Batrider
410 picks · 761 bans
50%
Rubick
Rubick
390 picks · 161 bans
51%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
359 picks · 1044 bans
53%
Pangolier
Pangolier
356 picks · 747 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)41% vs 60%
Hero pool strength54% MOUZ
Head-to-head0 – 2
Model total62% MOUZ
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct9:29
Team Secret 42%MOUZ 58%
The model gave 58% on MOUZ — the game was taken by MOUZ in 31:38.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Chaos Knight
Chaos KnightCrystallis
50% · 42 games57% · 22 games
UrsaUlnit
Ursa
Night Stalker
Night StalkerBOOM
47% · 29 games47% · 39 games
Dark SeerForce
Dark Seer
Winter Wyvern
Winter WyvernPuppey
52% · 39 games46% · 97 games
Primal BeastSupream^
Primal Beast
Hoodwink
HoodwinkShishak
48% · 169 games38% · 4 games
Witch Doctorbengan
Witch Doctor
57% · 117 games
TinyNARMAN
Tiny
Game 2prediction correct8:22
Team Secret 42%MOUZ 58%
The model gave 58% on MOUZ — the game was taken by MOUZ in 32:56.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Beastmaster
BeastmasterBOOM
48% · 49 games43% · 26 games
UrsaUlnit
Ursa
Naga Siren
Naga SirenCrystallis
54% · 80 games53% · 29 games
DazzleSupream^
Dazzle
Mirana
MiranaPuppey
51% · 71 game48% · 136 games
TinyNARMAN
Tiny
Weaver
WeaverShishak
47% · 64 games54% · 66 games
EnigmaForce
Enigma
40% · 7 games
Witch Doctorbengan
Witch Doctor
Model check result
Model favoriteMOUZ · 62%
Series resultMOUZ 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2