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Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 2 — Европа 1-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Secretloss 0:2
series probability
78%22%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Nigma Galaxywin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Secret

Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
zai · 6 games
67%
Puck
Pucksignature
Puppey · 6 games
67%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
YapzOr · 6 games
83%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
zai · 5 games
60%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
Puppey · 5 games
100%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
MATUMBAMAN · 5 games
40%
Tusk
Tusk
YapzOr · 5 games
80%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
zai · 4 games
75%

Nigma Galaxy

Void Spirit
Void Spiritsignature
Miracle- · 8 games
63%
Bloodseeker
Bloodseekeroften banned
MinD_ContRoL · 7 games
57%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
GH · 7 games
57%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
w33 · 6 games
33%
Puck
Puckoften banned
w33 · 6 games
33%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Miracle- · 5 games
40%
Io
Iooften banned
GH · 5 games
40%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
w33 · 5 games
40%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
448 picks · 981 bans
53%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
426 picks · 590 bans
53%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
368 picks · 691 bans
57%
Mars
Mars
351 picks · 603 bans
54%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
322 picks · 294 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
286 picks · 180 bans
51%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
278 picks · 242 bans
44%
Phoenix
Phoenix
276 picks · 390 bans
61%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)73% vs 38%
Hero pool strength59% Team Secret
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total78% Team Secret
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed32:35
Team Secret 65%Nigma Galaxy 35%
The model gave 65% on Team Secret — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 43:19.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Doom
DoomNisha
56% · 16 games55% · 23 games
JuggernautiLTW
Juggernaut
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterMATUMBAMAN
49% · 44 games54% · 95 games
PuckMiracle-
Puck
Venomancer
VenomancerPuppey
47% · 22 games72% · 16 games
RazorMinD_ContRoL
Razor
Bounty Hunter
Bounty Hunterzai
54% · 7 games49% · 59 games
TuskGH
Tusk
Lion
LionYapzOr
45% · 156 games44% · 52 games
GrimstrokeKuroKy
Grimstroke
Game 2prediction missed9:31
Team Secret 65%Nigma Galaxy 35%
The model gave 65% on Team Secret — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 27:03.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Lancer
Phantom LancerMATUMBAMAN
34% · 14 games56% · 35 games
GyrocopteriLTW
Gyrocopter
Void Spirit
Void SpiritNisha
56% · 76 games50% · 22 games
Sand KingMiracle-
Sand King
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnerzai
46% · 12 games50% · 34 games
Dark SeerMinD_ContRoL
Dark Seer
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath MageYapzOr
little data40% · 29 games
IoGH
Io
Grimstroke
GrimstrokePuppey
52% · 59 games46% · 41 game
Elder TitanKuroKy
Elder Titan
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Secret · 78%
Series resultNigma Galaxy 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2