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ESL One Summer 2021 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Secretloss 1:2
series probability
46%54%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Nigma Galaxywin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Secret

Puck
Pucksignature
Nisha · 11 games
64%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
YapzOr · 9 games
67%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
MATUMBAMAN · 8 games
38%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
zai · 7 games
71%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
zai · 7 games
57%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
Puppey · 7 games
71%
Tusk
Tusksignature
YapzOr · 7 games
71%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassinsignature
MATUMBAMAN · 6 games
67%

Nigma Galaxy

Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
GH · 18 games
56%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
MinD_ContRoL · 17 games
59%
Mars
Marssignature
MinD_ContRoL · 16 games
69%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Miracle- · 16 games
44%
Io
Iooften banned
GH · 14 games
43%
Lion
Lionsignature
KuroKy · 13 games
69%
Dark Willow
Dark Willowsignature
GH · 10 games
60%
Invoker
Invokersignature
Miracle- · 10 games
90%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
408 picks · 199 bans
50%
Mars
Mars
389 picks · 585 bans
51%
Puck
Puck
381 picks · 892 bans
51%
Snapfire
Snapfire
367 picks · 203 bans
50%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
353 picks · 335 bans
48%
Tiny
Tiny
314 picks · 228 bans
50%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
280 picks · 384 bans
53%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparition
260 picks · 348 bans
58%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)38% vs 42%
Hero pool strength52% Nigma Galaxy
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total54% Nigma Galaxy
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed36:6
Team Secret 47%Nigma Galaxy 53%
The model gave 53% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by Team Secret in 30:51.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Lancer
Phantom LancerMATUMBAMAN
48% · 21 game47% · 33 games
Anti-MageiLTW
Anti-Mage
Timbersaw
Timbersawzai
52% · 66 games47% · 76 games
Dragon KnightMinD_ContRoL
Dragon Knight
Void Spirit
Void SpiritNisha
42% · 103 games52% · 40 games
RazorMiracle-
Razor
Nyx Assassin
Nyx AssassinYapzOr
53% · 78 games54% · 134 games
PhoenixKuroKy
Phoenix
Ancient Apparition
Ancient ApparitionPuppey
52% · 68 games52% · 53 games
Shadow DemonGH
Shadow Demon
Game 2prediction correct25:34
Team Secret 48%Nigma Galaxy 52%
The model gave 52% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 42:08.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritNisha
47% · 52 games58% · 56 games
TerrorbladeiLTW
Terrorblade
Wraith King
Wraith KingMATUMBAMAN
42% · 89 games47% · 68 games
BatriderMiracle-
Batrider
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightzai
42% · 57 games57% · 70 games
Dark SeerMinD_ContRoL
Dark Seer
Ancient Apparition
Ancient ApparitionPuppey
49% · 81 game55% · 148 games
Nyx AssassinGH
Nyx Assassin
Clockwerk
ClockwerkYapzOr
52% · 66 games57% · 3 games
Vengeful SpiritKuroKy
Vengeful Spirit
Game 3prediction correct4:23
Team Secret 47%Nigma Galaxy 53%
The model gave 53% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 22:27.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Alchemist
AlchemistMATUMBAMAN
63% · 21 game57% · 50 games
Templar AssassinMiracle-
Templar Assassin
Leshrac
LeshracNisha
55% · 55 games46% · 72 games
AxeiLTW
Axe
Enchantress
EnchantressYapzOr
45% · 87 games45% · 64 games
Sand KingMinD_ContRoL
Sand King
Mars
Marszai
49% · 161 game52% · 133 games
PhoenixKuroKy
Phoenix
Witch Doctor
Witch DoctorPuppey
44% · 41 game54% · 46 games
Winter WyvernGH
Winter Wyvern
Model check result
Model favoriteNigma Galaxy · 54%
Series resultNigma Galaxy 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3