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Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 2 — Западная Европа · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Secretloss 1:2
series probability
68%32%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Nigma Galaxywin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Secret

Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
Puppey · 10 games
70%
Io
Iooften banned
Puppey · 9 games
33%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinsignature
YapzOr · 9 games
67%
Bane
Banesignature
Puppey · 8 games
63%
Outworld Destroyer
Outworld Destroyersignature
SumaiL · 8 games
75%
Rubick
Rubick
YapzOr · 8 games
50%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Puppey · 7 games
57%
Mars
Marsoften banned
iceiceice · 7 games
57%

Nigma Galaxy

Weaver
Weaveroften banned
KuroKy · 10 games
20%
Bane
Bane
KuroKy · 9 games
56%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
Miracle- · 9 games
56%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
GH · 7 games
57%
Lina
Linaoften banned
Miracle- · 7 games
43%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painoften banned
Miracle- · 7 games
57%
Tusk
Tusk
GH · 7 games
29%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
MinD_ContRoL · 6 games
17%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
Bane
442 picks · 261 bans
57%
Mars
Mars
400 picks · 547 bans
55%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
317 picks · 617 bans
53%
Tiny
Tiny
312 picks · 366 bans
51%
Weaver
Weaver
305 picks · 388 bans
51%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
281 picks · 403 bans
51%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Pain
276 picks · 449 bans
54%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassin
265 picks · 550 bans
55%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)47% vs 30%
Hero pool strength56% Team Secret
Head-to-head2 – 3
Model total68% Team Secret
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed21:28
Team Secret 59%Nigma Galaxy 41%
The model gave 59% on Team Secret — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 34:14.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Chaos Knight
Chaos KnightSumaiL
52% · 70 games51% · 114 games
Phantom AssassinMiracle-
Phantom Assassin
Lina
LinaNisha
51% · 260 games42% · 70 games
Dark SeerrmN-
Dark Seer
Batrider
Batridericeiceice
47% · 79 games47% · 140 games
Sand KingMinD_ContRoL
Sand King
Enchantress
EnchantressPuppey
48% · 153 games50% · 167 games
Death ProphetGH
Death Prophet
Monkey King
Monkey KingYapzOr
51% · 185 games59% · 256 games
BaneKuroKy
Bane
Game 2prediction correct32:14
Team Secret 60%Nigma Galaxy 40%
The model gave 60% on Team Secret — the game was taken by Team Secret in 44:20.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Troll Warlord
Troll WarlordSumaiL
49% · 34 games50% · 45 games
JuggernautMiracle-
Juggernaut
Pangolier
PangolierNisha
44% · 106 games61% · 42 games
SlardarMinD_ContRoL
Slardar
Chaos Knight
Chaos Knighticeiceice
54% · 27 games49% · 68 games
Dark SeerrmN-
Dark Seer
Enchantress
EnchantressPuppey
51% · 82 games48% · 144 games
Death ProphetGH
Death Prophet
Clockwerk
ClockwerkYapzOr
50% · 64 games51% · 14 games
LichKuroKy
Lich
Game 3prediction missed6:23
Team Secret 61%Nigma Galaxy 39%
The model gave 61% on Team Secret — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 27:07.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Chaos Knight
Chaos Knighticeiceice
47% · 60 games46% · 16 games
Naga SirenMiracle-
Naga Siren
Void Spirit
Void SpiritNisha
44% · 225 games52% · 136 games
Death ProphetMinD_ContRoL
Death Prophet
Faceless Void
Faceless VoidSumaiL
43% · 98 games54% · 152 games
TidehunterrmN-
Tidehunter
Enchantress
EnchantressPuppey
44% · 127 games51% · 86 games
Keeper of the LightGH
Keeper of the Light
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath MageYapzOr
54% · 70 games60% · 190 games
BaneKuroKy
Bane
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Secret · 68%
Series resultNigma Galaxy 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3