Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022 — Западная Европа · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Secretloss 0:2series probability
66%34%
probability at match start · final 0:2
OGwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Secret
Magnussignature
zai · 9 games
Enchantresssignature
Puppey · 8 games
Monkey Kingsignature
YapzOr · 8 games
Pucksignature
Nisha · 7 games
Snapfiresignature
YapzOr · 7 games
Rubick
YapzOr · 6 games
Ursasignature
MATUMBAMAN · 6 games
Elder Titan
Puppey · 5 games
OG
Hoodwinksignature
Topson · 11 games
Elder Titansignature
Saksa · 8 games
Magnusoften banned
Ceb · 8 games
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
n0tail · 7 games
Clockwerk
Saksa · 7 games
Nature's Prophet
n0tail · 7 games
Tinyoften banned
SumaiL · 7 games
Void Spiritoften banned
Topson · 7 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
277 picks · 419 bans
Tidehunter
272 picks · 397 bans
Monkey King
260 picks · 652 bans
Bane
242 picks · 185 bans
Weaver
231 picks · 449 bans
Lina
218 picks · 481 bans
Lion
207 picks · 108 bans
Void Spirit
206 picks · 266 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 38%
Hero pool strength53% Team Secret
Head-to-head2 – 1
Model total66% Team Secret
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed9:38
Team Secret 56%OG 44%
The model gave 56% on Team Secret — the game was taken by OG in 45:56.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
TerrorbladeNisha
TimbersawATF
GrimstrokeSumaiL
RazorYuragi
Winter Wyverniceiceice
Invokerbzm
WeaverPuppey
Nyx AssassinTaiga
PudgeYapzOr
JakiroMisha
Game 2prediction missed14:43
Team Secret 56%OG 44%
The model gave 56% on Team Secret — the game was taken by OG in 36:46.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom AssassinNisha
Templar AssassinYuragi
Pangoliericeiceice
Ember Spiritbzm
Void SpiritSumaiL
MarsATF
Ancient ApparitionPuppey
Shadow DemonMisha
Monkey KingYapzOr
Dark WillowTaiga
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Secret · 66%
Series resultOG 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2