The International 2023 — Квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Secretwin 2:0series probability
49%51%
probability at match start · final 2:0
OGloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Secret
Monkey Kingsignature
Crystallis · 20 games
Batrideroften banned
yamich · 14 games
Snapfire
Armel · 14 games
Bloodseekeroften banned
Crystallis · 13 games
Chenoften banned
Puppey · 13 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Armel · 12 games
Enchantressoften banned
Puppey · 12 games
Magnusoften banned
Armel · 12 games
OG
Rubick
Taiga · 27 games
Keeper of the Lightsignature
Taiga · 20 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
Taiga · 18 games
Venomancersignature
DM · 18 games
Enchantressoften banned
Chuvash · 17 games
Disruptor
Chuvash · 16 games
Doomoften banned
DM · 16 games
Invokeroften banned
bzm · 16 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Techies
472 picks · 505 bans
Rubick
452 picks · 217 bans
Batrider
397 picks · 667 bans
Ember Spirit
362 picks · 614 bans
Morphling
337 picks · 706 bans
Timbersaw
329 picks · 763 bans
Undying
314 picks · 523 bans
Storm Spirit
312 picks · 643 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)24% vs 26%
Hero pool strength53% OG
Head-to-head0 – 4
Model total51% OG
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed31:27
Team Secret 49%OG 51%
The model gave 51% on OG — the game was taken by Team Secret in 1:03:11.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom AssassinCrystallis
TerrorbladeYuragi
Queen of PainArmel
DoomDM
BrewmasterFbz
Pangolierbzm
Elder Titanyamich
LionCeb
Vengeful SpiritPuppey
Game 2prediction missed26:14
Team Secret 49%OG 51%
The model gave 51% on OG — the game was taken by Team Secret in 35:06.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar AssassinArmel
SvenYuragi
UrsaCrystallis
Death Prophetbzm
BeastmasterFbz
UnderlordDM
Lionyamich
IoCeb
GyrocopterPuppey
Model check result
Model favoriteOG · 51%
Series resultTeam Secret 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2