?
arrow_backBack to match
DreamLeague Season 26. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Secretwin 2:0
series probability
79%21%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Passion UAloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Secret

Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Ainkrad · 15 games
33%
Bristleback
Bristlebacksignature
MikSa` · 14 games
71%
Lion
Lionsignature
Thiolicor · 14 games
64%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinoften banned
Thiolicor · 13 games
54%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
423 · 12 games
42%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Supream^ · 12 games
67%
Elder Titan
Elder Titan
Puppey · 11 games
36%
Bounty Hunter
Bounty Hunteroften banned
Kyzko · 10 games
30%

Passion UA

Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Fernans · 29 games
59%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
Crystallize · 27 games
44%
Tusk
Tusk
flacko · 26 games
50%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Fernans · 25 games
60%
Bristleback
Bristlebacksignature
Batyuk · 24 games
71%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
niche · 24 games
46%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
Fernans · 20 games
45%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
niche · 19 games
58%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
538 picks · 762 bans
48%
Muerta
Muerta
439 picks · 325 bans
52%
Phoenix
Phoenix
435 picks · 709 bans
52%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
413 picks · 405 bans
53%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassin
400 picks · 700 bans
53%
Bristleback
Bristleback
393 picks · 888 bans
57%
Magnus
Magnus
389 picks · 1045 bans
57%
Pangolier
Pangolier
376 picks · 519 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)61% vs 42%
Hero pool strength50% Passion UA
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total79% Team Secret
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct35:34
Team Secret 64%Passion UA 36%
The model gave 64% on Team Secret — the game was taken by Team Secret in 1:03:52.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
MorphlingParker
44% · 157 games53% · 150 games
DoomBatyuk
Doom
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetPuppey
52% · 72 games50% · 111 games
Phantom AssassinCrystallize
Phantom Assassin
Sand King
Sand KingSupream^
51% · 141 game50% · 256 games
Beastmasterniche
Beastmaster
Windranger
WindrangerThiolicor
46% · 102 games50% · 27 games
ClinkzFernans
Clinkz
Tidehunter
TidehunterMikSa`
49% · 97 games59% · 25 games
Ringmasterkreker
Ringmaster
Game 2prediction correct22:13
Team Secret 67%Passion UA 33%
The model gave 67% on Team Secret — the game was taken by Team Secret in 35:11.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterParker
51% · 363 games56% · 191 game
LifestealerCrystallize
Lifestealer
Tiny
TinySupream^
49% · 488 games46% · 425 games
Dragon Knightniche
Dragon Knight
Slardar
SlardarMikSa`
47% · 104 games59% · 218 games
MagnusBatyuk
Magnus
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the LightThiolicor
52% · 95 games49% · 297 games
HoodwinkFernans
Hoodwink
Tusk
TuskPuppey
47% · 264 games45% · 183 games
Jakirokreker
Jakiro
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Secret · 79%
Series resultTeam Secret 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2