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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. Западная Европа. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Secretloss 1:2
series probability
54%46%
probability at match start · final 1:2
PSG Questwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Secret

Mirana
Mirana
Puppey · 9 games
56%
Techies
Techies
yamich · 9 games
33%
Tusk
Tusk
yamich · 9 games
56%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
BOOM · 8 games
75%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Armel · 7 games
71%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Crystallis · 7 games
86%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
Armel · 6 games
67%
Pugna
Pugnaoften banned
Puppey · 6 games
33%

PSG Quest

Rubick
Rubicksignature
OmaR · 32 games
66%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Kaori · 21 game
67%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Kaori · 20 games
65%
Tidehunter
Tidehuntersignature
Wuiter · 18 games
67%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
TA2000 · 17 games
59%
Tiny
Tiny
No!ob · 17 games
59%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
No!ob · 16 games
56%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
No!ob · 16 games
63%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
698 picks · 597 bans
47%
Disruptor
Disruptor
562 picks · 492 bans
54%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
458 picks · 1113 bans
58%
Doom
Doom
449 picks · 818 bans
55%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
409 picks · 1043 bans
50%
Pangolier
Pangolier
386 picks · 837 bans
54%
Enchantress
Enchantress
383 picks · 549 bans
51%
Mirana
Mirana
383 picks · 209 bans
58%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 39%
Hero pool strength51% PSG Quest
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total54% Team Secret
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed38:17
Team Secret 49%PSG Quest 51%
The model gave 51% on PSG Quest — the game was taken by Team Secret in 1:10:42.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritArmel
47% · 144 games55% · 76 games
TerrorbladeTA2000
Terrorblade
Windranger
WindrangerCrystallis
33% · 66 games54% · 122 games
PuckNo!ob
Puck
Chen
ChenPuppey
60% · 89 games57% · 50 games
SlarkATF
Slark
Legion Commander
Legion CommanderBOOM
48% · 48 games47% · 77 games
PhoenixKaori
Phoenix
Pugna
Pugnayamich
42% · 78 games55% · 100 games
TechiesOmaR
Techies
Game 2prediction correct4:15
Team Secret 50%PSG Quest 50%
The model gave 50% on PSG Quest — the game was taken by PSG Quest in 23:23.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Chaos Knight
Chaos KnightCrystallis
47% · 122 games52% · 103 games
Templar AssassinTA2000
Templar Assassin
Batrider
BatriderBOOM
55% · 179 games54% · 308 games
BeastmasterATF
Beastmaster
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritArmel
52% · 180 games47% · 124 games
Void SpiritNo!ob
Void Spirit
Enchantress
EnchantressPuppey
51% · 241 game46% · 153 games
SilencerKaori
Silencer
Pugna
Pugnayamich
47% · 96 games50% · 130 games
TechiesOmaR
Techies
Game 3prediction missed10:35
Team Secret 52%PSG Quest 48%
The model gave 52% on Team Secret — the game was taken by PSG Quest in 36:34.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Timbersaw
TimbersawArmel
52% · 108 games49% · 86 games
TerrorbladeTA2000
Terrorblade
Medusa
MedusaCrystallis
58% · 81 game56% · 72 games
Void SpiritNo!ob
Void Spirit
Magnus
MagnusBOOM
44% · 111 games41% · 29 games
Anti-MageATF
Anti-Mage
Clinkz
Clinkzyamich
43% · 33 games38% · 122 games
UndyingKaori
Undying
Spirit Breaker
Spirit BreakerPuppey
46% · 68 games62% · 92 games
TechiesOmaR
Techies
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Secret · 54%
Series resultPSG Quest 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3