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DreamLeague Season 22 · BO2
result vs prediction
Team Secretloss 0:2
series probability
30%70%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Shopify Rebellionwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Secret

Razor
Razoroften banned
Crystallis · 15 games
47%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
BOOM · 14 games
64%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
Puppey · 12 games
75%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Crystallis · 11 games
64%
Doom
Doomsignature
yamich · 10 games
60%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Ekki · 9 games
78%
Brewmaster
Brewmastersignature
BOOM · 9 games
67%
Invoker
Invokersignature
MidOne · 9 games
78%

Shopify Rebellion

Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Yopaj · 14 games
71%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
SabeRLight- · 12 games
50%
Lion
Lionsignature
Thiolicor · 12 games
75%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
Cr1t- · 12 games
58%
Mars
Marssignature
SabeRLight- · 10 games
60%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
SabeRLight- · 9 games
44%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Thiolicor · 9 games
67%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
SabeRLight- · 9 games
56%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
365 picks · 318 bans
54%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
324 picks · 311 bans
52%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
322 picks · 484 bans
59%
Pangolier
Pangolier
269 picks · 381 bans
52%
Mars
Mars
254 picks · 328 bans
56%
Techies
Techies
253 picks · 171 bans
55%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
252 picks · 142 bans
51%
Magnus
Magnus
250 picks · 460 bans
57%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)46% vs 75%
Hero pool strength51% Shopify Rebellion
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total70% Shopify Rebellion
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct12:30
Team Secret 40%Shopify Rebellion 60%
The model gave 60% on Shopify Rebellion — the game was taken by Shopify Rebellion in 36:49.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Slark
SlarkCrystallis
57% · 80 games53% · 77 games
LeshracYopaj
Leshrac
Enigma
EnigmaBOOM
56% · 56 games44% · 70 games
UrsaArteezy
Ursa
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaidenPuppey
47% · 71 game51% · 97 games
Centaur WarrunnerSabeRLight-
Centaur Warrunner
Tiny
TinyEkki
42% · 130 games50% · 93 games
Shadow DemonThiolicor
Shadow Demon
Game 2prediction correct32:52
Team Secret 37%Shopify Rebellion 63%
The model gave 63% on Shopify Rebellion — the game was taken by Shopify Rebellion in 49:26.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Slardar
SlardarBOOM
43% · 21 game46% · 66 games
SvenArteezy
Sven
Windranger
WindrangerCrystallis
59% · 135 games52% · 169 games
TimbersawYopaj
Timbersaw
Enchantress
EnchantressPuppey
48% · 226 games54% · 200 games
DoomSabeRLight-
Doom
Tiny
TinyEkki
50% · 172 games44% · 119 games
HoodwinkThiolicor
Hoodwink
Model check result
Model favoriteShopify Rebellion · 70%
Series resultShopify Rebellion 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2