ESL One Malaysia 2022 · BO2
result vs prediction
Team Secretloss 1:1series probability
54%46%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Talon Esportsloss 1:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Secret
Chensignature
Puppey · 12 games
Clockwerksignature
Puppey · 11 games
Timbersawoften banned
Nisha · 11 games
Doomsignature
Zayac · 10 games
Monkey Kingsignature
Crystallis · 10 games
Zeussignature
Nisha · 10 games
Enchantressoften banned
Puppey · 8 games
Pucksignature
Nisha · 8 games
Talon Esports
Bane
Hyde · 14 games
Death Prophetoften banned
kpii · 14 games
Tiny
Xepher · 14 games
Marcioften banned
Q · 13 games
Void Spiritoften banned
Mikoto · 13 games
Brewmastersignature
kpii · 12 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Mikoto · 11 games
Marssignature
kpii · 11 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
738 picks · 558 bans
Puck
525 picks · 1052 bans
Dawnbreaker
458 picks · 595 bans
Marci
429 picks · 772 bans
Snapfire
372 picks · 197 bans
Winter Wyvern
362 picks · 394 bans
Zeus
322 picks · 368 bans
Razor
317 picks · 625 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)52% vs 47%
Hero pool strength55% Team Secret
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total54% Team Secret
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed58:23
Team Secret 50%Talon Esports 50%
The model gave 50% on Talon Esports — the game was taken by Team Secret in 46:48.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
RazorCrystallis
Dawnbreaker23savage
BatriderResolut1on
PangolierMikoto
Ember SpiritNisha
Enigmakpii
ClockwerkPuppey
EnchantressQ
TuskZayac
BaneHyde
Game 2prediction missed12:49
Team Secret 51%Talon Esports 49%
The model gave 51% on Team Secret — the game was taken by Talon Esports in 34:00.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
LycanResolut1on
Dawnbreaker23savage
WeaverCrystallis
InvokerMikoto
LinaNisha
Primal Beastkpii
TechiesZayac
Queen of PainQ
SvenPuppey
ClockwerkHyde
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Secret · 54%
Accuracy by game0 of 2