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The International 2022 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Secretwin 2:1
series probability
50%50%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Team Liquidloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Secret

Chen
Chensignature
Puppey · 21 game
62%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Zayac · 20 games
75%
Razor
Razoroften banned
Crystallis · 18 games
44%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakersignature
Resolut1on · 17 games
65%
Marci
Marcisignature
Zayac · 17 games
71%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Crystallis · 17 games
71%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Puppey · 15 games
60%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinsignature
Zayac · 15 games
93%

Team Liquid

Tiny
Tiny
miCKe · 31 game
39%
Marci
Marcisignature
Boxi · 24 games
63%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
miCKe · 18 games
61%
Pudge
Pudgesignature
MATUMBAMAN · 18 games
67%
Undying
Undyingsignature
iNSaNiA · 18 games
78%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
iNSaNiA · 17 games
53%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Boxi · 17 games
47%
Enigma
Enigmasignature
zai · 16 games
69%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
448 picks · 323 bans
51%
Marci
Marci
441 picks · 637 bans
54%
Undying
Undying
320 picks · 533 bans
55%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
268 picks · 422 bans
47%
Enigma
Enigma
259 picks · 813 bans
58%
Pangolier
Pangolier
258 picks · 357 bans
55%
Puck
Puck
240 picks · 561 bans
56%
Snapfire
Snapfire
239 picks · 122 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)53% vs 46%
Hero pool strength53% Team Secret
Head-to-head4 – 1
Model total50% Team Secret
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct24:14
Team Secret 51%Team Liquid 49%
The model gave 51% on Team Secret — the game was taken by Team Secret in 27:52.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
MorphlingNisha
46% · 96 games52% · 44 games
LifestealerMATUMBAMAN
Lifestealer
Sniper
SniperCrystallis
66% · 30 games52% · 59 games
Primal BeastmiCKe
Primal Beast
Beastmaster
BeastmasterResolut1on
47% · 109 games49% · 117 games
Enigmazai
Enigma
Silencer
SilencerPuppey
45% · 53 games47% · 112 games
TuskBoxi
Tusk
Nyx Assassin
Nyx AssassinZayac
58% · 73 games40% · 29 games
LichiNSaNiA
Lich
Game 2prediction missed21:35
Team Secret 51%Team Liquid 49%
The model gave 51% on Team Secret — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 39:31.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainNisha
55% · 137 games59% · 34 games
SniperMATUMBAMAN
Sniper
Monkey King
Monkey KingCrystallis
46% · 183 games50% · 64 games
Broodmotherzai
Broodmother
Primal Beast
Primal BeastResolut1on
56% · 73 games50% · 264 games
TinymiCKe
Tiny
Silencer
SilencerPuppey
39% · 56 games46% · 82 games
JakiroiNSaNiA
Jakiro
Nyx Assassin
Nyx AssassinZayac
52% · 104 games49% · 109 games
TuskBoxi
Tusk
Game 3prediction missed32:23
Team Secret 46%Team Liquid 54%
The model gave 54% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Secret in 38:29.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Invoker
InvokerNisha
40% · 112 games50% · 150 games
LinamiCKe
Lina
Drow Ranger
Drow RangerCrystallis
41% · 50 games53% · 51 game
LifestealerMATUMBAMAN
Lifestealer
Enchantress
EnchantressPuppey
43% · 133 games61% · 43 games
Brewmasterzai
Brewmaster
Beastmaster
BeastmasterResolut1on
49% · 131 game57% · 116 games
TuskBoxi
Tusk
Earthshaker
EarthshakerZayac
51% · 80 games57% · 146 games
UndyingiNSaNiA
Undying
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Secret · 50%
Series resultTeam Secret 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 3