The International 10 (2021) · BO2
result vs prediction
Team Secretwin 2:0series probability
17%83%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Team Spiritloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Secret
Snapfiresignature
Puppey · 7 games
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
Puppey · 5 games
Grimstroke
Puppey · 5 games
Magnusoften banned
zai · 5 games
Puckoften banned
Nisha · 5 games
Svenoften banned
MATUMBAMAN · 5 games
Winter Wyvernoften banned
Puppey · 5 games
Centaur Warrunner
zai · 4 games
Team Spirit
Miranasignature
Mira · 35 games
Marsoften banned
Collapse · 27 games
Pucksignature
TORONTOTOKYO · 22 games
Tinysignature
Mira · 22 games
Grimstrokesignature
Miposhka · 21 game
Lionsignature
Mira · 20 games
Phoenixsignature
Mira · 20 games
Tidehuntersignature
Collapse · 19 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
310 picks · 174 bans
Lina
282 picks · 538 bans
Mars
279 picks · 406 bans
Hoodwink
269 picks · 97 bans
Pangolier
262 picks · 373 bans
Shadow Demon
245 picks · 257 bans
Luna
231 picks · 326 bans
Tidehunter
209 picks · 369 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 67%
Hero pool strength57% Team Spirit
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total83% Team Spirit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed25:14
Team Secret 29%Team Spirit 71%
The model gave 71% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Secret in 28:16.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom LancerMATUMBAMAN
BloodseekerYatoro
Queen of PainNisha
Storm SpiritTORONTOTOKYO
Nature's Prophetzai
TuskCollapse
Ogre MagiPuppey
WeaverMira
Monkey KingYapzOr
BaneMiposhka
Game 2prediction missed29:12
Team Secret 31%Team Spirit 69%
The model gave 69% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Secret in 31:44.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
ClinkzMATUMBAMAN
MedusaYatoro
PuckNisha
InvokerTORONTOTOKYO
Tinyzai
MarsCollapse
SnapfireYapzOr
LionMiposhka
Ogre MagiPuppey
IoMira
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Spirit · 83%
Series resultTeam Secret 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2