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The International 2022 · BO2
result vs prediction
Team Secretloss 1:1
series probability
43%57%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Team Spiritloss 1:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Secret

Chen
Chensignature
Puppey · 19 games
63%
Razor
Razoroften banned
Crystallis · 18 games
44%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Puppey · 15 games
60%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Crystallis · 15 games
73%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Zayac · 14 games
71%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakersignature
Resolut1on · 13 games
62%
Doom
Doomoften banned
Zayac · 12 games
42%
Marci
Marcioften banned
Zayac · 12 games
58%

Team Spirit

Tiny
Tinysignature
Mira · 23 games
83%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
Mira · 19 games
79%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Collapse · 17 games
59%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
Mira · 16 games
88%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
TORONTOTOKYO · 14 games
79%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvernoften banned
Miposhka · 12 games
50%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Miposhka · 11 games
55%
Marci
Marcioften banned
Mira · 11 games
36%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
514 picks · 399 bans
53%
Marci
Marci
457 picks · 698 bans
54%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
304 picks · 468 bans
48%
Puck
Puck
288 picks · 701 bans
57%
Undying
Undying
286 picks · 488 bans
56%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
280 picks · 397 bans
47%
Snapfire
Snapfire
255 picks · 132 bans
50%
Batrider
Batrider
253 picks · 875 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 50%
Hero pool strength54% Team Spirit
Head-to-head0 – 3
Model total57% Team Spirit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct16:26
Team Secret 48%Team Spirit 52%
The model gave 52% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 33:37.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Primal Beast
Primal BeastResolut1on
45% · 58 games47% · 46 games
Troll WarlordYatoro
Troll Warlord
Ursa
UrsaCrystallis
43% · 76 games47% · 109 games
DoomCollapse
Doom
Tiny
TinyNisha
54% · 264 games47% · 86 games
LeshracTORONTOTOKYO
Leshrac
Chen
ChenPuppey
59% · 67 games46% · 189 games
ClockwerkMiposhka
Clockwerk
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanZayac
54% · 79 games56% · 114 games
Nyx AssassinMira
Nyx Assassin
Game 2prediction missed52:21
Team Secret 48%Team Spirit 52%
The model gave 52% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Secret in 54:41.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Kunkka
KunkkaNisha
48% · 212 games46% · 40 games
SpectreYatoro
Spectre
Bloodseeker
BloodseekerCrystallis
47% · 115 games44% · 313 games
PangolierTORONTOTOKYO
Pangolier
Enigma
EnigmaResolut1on
62% · 157 games53% · 297 games
BeastmasterCollapse
Beastmaster
Nyx Assassin
Nyx AssassinZayac
58% · 144 games48% · 241 game
ClockwerkMiposhka
Clockwerk
Bane
BanePuppey
53% · 354 games38% · 91 game
SilencerMira
Silencer
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Spirit · 57%
Accuracy by game1 of 2