DreamLeague Season 20 · BO2
result vs prediction
Team Secretloss 0:2series probability
24%76%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Team Spiritwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Secret
Monkey Kingsignature
Crystallis · 12 games
Magnusoften banned
Armel · 11 games
Pugnaoften banned
yamich · 11 games
Techiesoften banned
yamich · 11 games
Mirana
Puppey · 10 games
Tusk
yamich · 9 games
Beastmastersignature
BOOM · 8 games
Ember Spiritsignature
Armel · 8 games
Team Spirit
Rubicksignature
Mira · 54 games
Snapfiresignature
Larl · 29 games
Enchantresssignature
Miposhka · 27 games
Beastmastersignature
Collapse · 25 games
Tinysignature
Larl · 24 games
Pangoliersignature
Larl · 21 game
Undyingsignature
Miposhka · 21 game
Lichsignature
Miposhka · 20 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
752 picks · 622 bans
Disruptor
614 picks · 534 bans
Beastmaster
548 picks · 1329 bans
Doom
543 picks · 1078 bans
Techies
468 picks · 516 bans
Pangolier
466 picks · 964 bans
Ember Spirit
460 picks · 1166 bans
Enchantress
447 picks · 638 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)42% vs 47%
Hero pool strength57% Team Spirit
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total76% Team Spirit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct23:32
Team Secret 35%Team Spirit 65%
The model gave 65% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 50:43.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Void SpiritArmel
Faceless VoidYatoro
WindrangerCrystallis
PangolierLarl
MagnusFbz
BatriderCollapse
EnchantressPuppey
RubickMira
Undyingyamich
LichMiposhka
Game 2prediction correct17:26
Team Secret 35%Team Spirit 65%
The model gave 65% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 36:24.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MorphlingArmel
Faceless VoidYatoro
MarsFbz
SnapfireLarl
WindrangerCrystallis
MagnusCollapse
UndyingPuppey
LichMiposhka
Techiesyamich
RubickMira
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Spirit · 76%
Series resultTeam Spirit 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2