Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022 — Западная Европа · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Secretwin 2:0series probability
32%68%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Team Ticklesloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Secret
Snapfiresignature
YapzOr · 11 games
Monkey Kingsignature
YapzOr · 8 games
Ogre Magisignature
Puppey · 8 games
Enchantresssignature
Puppey · 7 games
Iooften banned
Puppey · 7 games
Magnussignature
zai · 7 games
Nyx Assassinsignature
YapzOr · 7 games
Queen of Painsignature
SumaiL · 7 games
Team Tickles
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
437 picks · 321 bans
Mars
408 picks · 596 bans
Queen of Pain
346 picks · 416 bans
Weaver
341 picks · 770 bans
Snapfire
328 picks · 181 bans
Kunkka
268 picks · 447 bans
Spirit Breaker
262 picks · 382 bans
Ember Spirit
242 picks · 331 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 79%
Hero pool strength57% Team Secret
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total68% Team Tickles
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed32:23
Team Secret 32%Team Tickles 68%
The model gave 68% on Team Tickles — the game was taken by Team Secret in 42:27.
Game 2prediction missed21:19
Team Secret 32%Team Tickles 68%
The model gave 68% on Team Tickles — the game was taken by Team Secret in 35:09.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Tickles · 68%
Series resultTeam Secret 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2