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DreamLeague Season 22. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Secretwin 2:1
series probability
76%24%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Team wkwkwkloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Secret

Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
BOOM · 18 games
67%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Crystallis · 15 games
60%
Razor
Razoroften banned
Crystallis · 15 games
40%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Armel · 12 games
33%
Batrider
Batridersignature
yamich · 11 games
64%
Bloodseeker
Bloodseekeroften banned
Crystallis · 11 games
55%
Chen
Chenoften banned
Puppey · 10 games
30%
Dark Seer
Dark Seersignature
Fbz · 10 games
60%

Team wkwkwk

Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
Xepher · 5 games
80%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Handsken · 4 games
50%
Lion
Lion
Xepher · 4 games
50%
Abaddon
Abaddonoften banned
Smiling Knight · 3 games
33%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
s4 · 3 games
67%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Stojkov · 3 games
0%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
s4 · 3 games
33%
Techies
Techies
Xepher · 3 games
0%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
269 picks · 387 bans
53%
Phoenix
Phoenix
259 picks · 389 bans
49%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
257 picks · 433 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
219 picks · 206 bans
46%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
217 picks · 560 bans
52%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
200 picks · 98 bans
53%
Muerta
Muerta
200 picks · 281 bans
49%
Lion
Lion
199 picks · 179 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 50%
Hero pool strength53% Team Secret
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total76% Team Secret
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed23:28
Team Secret 62%Team wkwkwk 38%
The model gave 62% on Team Secret — the game was taken by Team wkwkwk in 42:35.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Naga Siren
Naga SirenCrystallis
50% · 155 games51% · 157 games
PuckStojkov
Puck
Lone Druid
Lone DruidBOOM
53% · 44 games54% · 130 games
Faceless VoidSmiling Knight
Faceless Void
Snapfire
SnapfirePuppey
45% · 247 games55% · 159 games
Dark Seers4
Dark Seer
Rubick
RubickEkki
46% · 475 games49% · 265 games
TechiesXepher
Techies
51% · 210 games
PhoenixHandsken
Phoenix
Game 2prediction correct26:17
Team Secret 66%Team wkwkwk 34%
The model gave 66% on Team Secret — the game was taken by Team Secret in 36:41.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Naga Siren
Naga SirenCrystallis
48% · 122 games45% · 59 games
LunaSmiling Knight
Luna
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful SpiritBOOM
56% · 83 games50% · 162 games
Primal BeastStojkov
Primal Beast
Batrider
BatriderPuppey
56% · 196 games45% · 129 games
Death Prophets4
Death Prophet
Monkey King
Monkey KingEkki
56% · 145 games51% · 126 games
PugnaHandsken
Pugna
38% · 70 games
HoodwinkXepher
Hoodwink
Game 3prediction correct33:16
Team Secret 64%Team wkwkwk 36%
The model gave 64% on Team Secret — the game was taken by Team Secret in 43:02.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
UrsaCrystallis
43% · 116 games53% · 80 games
WindrangerSmiling Knight
Windranger
Death Prophet
Death ProphetBOOM
53% · 189 games48% · 88 games
InvokerStojkov
Invoker
Monkey King
Monkey KingEkki
63% · 189 games54% · 224 games
Dooms4
Doom
Lion
LionPuppey
47% · 120 games44% · 123 games
PhoenixHandsken
Phoenix
45% · 99 games
HoodwinkXepher
Hoodwink
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Secret · 76%
Series resultTeam Secret 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3