The International 2022 · BO2
result vs prediction
Team Secretloss 1:1series probability
58%42%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Thunder Awakenloss 1:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Secret
Razoroften banned
Crystallis · 18 games
Chensignature
Puppey · 16 games
Monkey Kingsignature
Crystallis · 16 games
Clockwerksignature
Puppey · 15 games
Tusksignature
Zayac · 14 games
Enchantressoften banned
Puppey · 12 games
Beastmastersignature
Resolut1on · 11 games
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Resolut1on · 11 games
Thunder Awaken
Snapfiresignature
Matthew · 27 games
Tinysignature
DarkMago · 23 games
Marssignature
DarkMago · 20 games
Ogre Magi
Panda · 19 games
Timbersawsignature
Sacred · 14 games
Banesignature
Panda · 13 games
Kunkkasignature
DarkMago · 13 games
Weaversignature
Sacred · 13 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
499 picks · 385 bans
Marci
426 picks · 651 bans
Death Prophet
294 picks · 461 bans
Puck
283 picks · 694 bans
Dawnbreaker
281 picks · 395 bans
Undying
256 picks · 451 bans
Winter Wyvern
253 picks · 334 bans
Batrider
248 picks · 828 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)52% vs 38%
Hero pool strength53% Thunder Awaken
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total58% Team Secret
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct26:5
Team Secret 56%Thunder Awaken 44%
The model gave 56% on Team Secret — the game was taken by Team Secret in 26:58.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
UrsaCrystallis
Phantom AssassinPakazs
Shadow FiendNisha
LeshracDarkMago
MiranaResolut1on
OmniknightSacred
ChenPuppey
HoodwinkMatthew
MarciZayac
LichPanda
Game 2prediction missed8:38
Team Secret 56%Thunder Awaken 44%
The model gave 56% on Team Secret — the game was taken by Thunder Awaken in 28:51.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
DoomResolut1on
PudgePakazs
Ember SpiritNisha
ZeusDarkMago
Shadow FiendCrystallis
DawnbreakerSacred
ChenPuppey
HoodwinkMatthew
EarthshakerZayac
Crystal MaidenPanda
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Secret · 58%
Accuracy by game1 of 2