Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022 — Западная Европа · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Secretwin 2:1series probability
36%64%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Tundra Esportsloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Secret
Magnussignature
zai · 7 games
Enchantresssignature
Puppey · 6 games
Leshracoften banned
Nisha · 6 games
Monkey Kingsignature
YapzOr · 6 games
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
Puppey · 5 games
Elder Titan
Puppey · 5 games
Ogre Magi
Puppey · 5 games
Rubick
YapzOr · 5 games
Tundra Esports
Abaddonsignature
Fata · 14 games
Gyrocoptersignature
Fata · 12 games
Miranasignature
Sneyking · 12 games
Nyx Assassinsignature
Sneyking · 12 games
Batridersignature
Nine · 11 games
Lunasignature
Skiter · 11 games
Tidehuntersignature
33 · 11 games
Terrorbladesignature
Skiter · 10 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
337 picks · 478 bans
Snapfire
287 picks · 167 bans
Bane
275 picks · 218 bans
Weaver
273 picks · 600 bans
Monkey King
254 picks · 715 bans
Tidehunter
254 picks · 394 bans
Ember Spirit
219 picks · 305 bans
Disruptor
214 picks · 137 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 67%
Hero pool strength55% Tundra Esports
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total64% Tundra Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct31:36
Team Secret 44%Tundra Esports 56%
The model gave 56% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 48:13.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Monkey KingNisha
Faceless VoidSkiter
Outworld DestroyerSumaiL
Queen of PainNine
Ogre Magiiceiceice
Timbersaw33
ClockwerkPuppey
SnapfireSneyking
Skywrath MageYapzOr
BaneFata
Game 2prediction missed34:35
Team Secret 42%Tundra Esports 58%
The model gave 58% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Team Secret in 54:02.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Troll WarlordNisha
HoodwinkNine
PuckSumaiL
Faceless VoidSkiter
Outworld Destroyericeiceice
Beastmaster33
SnapfireYapzOr
WeaverFata
BanePuppey
Monkey KingSneyking
Game 3prediction missed36:25
Team Secret 44%Tundra Esports 56%
The model gave 56% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Team Secret in 55:15.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Naga SirenNisha
Wraith King33
Timbersawiceiceice
BatriderNine
RazorSumaiL
BloodseekerSkiter
Nyx AssassinYapzOr
SnapfireSneyking
BanePuppey
ClockwerkFata
Model check result
Model favoriteTundra Esports · 64%
Series resultTeam Secret 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3