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OGA Dota PIT EU/CIS Season 5 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Secretloss 0:2
series probability
42%58%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Tundra Esportswin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Secret

Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
YapzOr · 10 games
80%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
YapzOr · 8 games
63%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Puppey · 7 games
86%
Magnus
Magnussignature
zai · 7 games
71%
Ogre Magi
Ogre Magi
Puppey · 7 games
57%
Elder Titan
Elder Titansignature
Puppey · 6 games
67%
Puck
Pucksignature
Nisha · 6 games
67%
Rubick
Rubick
YapzOr · 6 games
50%

Tundra Esports

Abaddon
Abaddonsignature
Fata · 14 games
79%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Nine · 13 games
85%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
Fata · 13 games
62%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinsignature
Sneyking · 13 games
77%
Tidehunter
Tidehuntersignature
33 · 13 games
62%
Luna
Lunasignature
Skiter · 12 games
67%
Mirana
Miranasignature
Sneyking · 12 games
75%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidsignature
Skiter · 11 games
64%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
Mars
371 picks · 540 bans
48%
Bane
Bane
330 picks · 257 bans
58%
Snapfire
Snapfire
329 picks · 201 bans
46%
Weaver
Weaver
313 picks · 703 bans
56%
Monkey King
Monkey King
252 picks · 756 bans
57%
Tidehunter
Tidehunter
248 picks · 387 bans
47%
Disruptor
Disruptor
237 picks · 153 bans
51%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
231 picks · 331 bans
58%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)52% vs 58%
Hero pool strength55% Tundra Esports
Head-to-head3 – 0
Model total58% Tundra Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct15:37
Team Secret 46%Tundra Esports 54%
The model gave 54% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 35:37.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
MorphlingNisha
47% · 97 games47% · 59 games
Anti-MageSkiter
Anti-Mage
Leshrac
LeshracSumaiL
48% · 83 games55% · 111 games
Doom33
Doom
Timbersaw
Timbersawiceiceice
48% · 83 games47% · 50 games
Spirit BreakerNine
Spirit Breaker
Nyx Assassin
Nyx AssassinYapzOr
60% · 88 games49% · 99 games
WeaverSneyking
Weaver
Oracle
OraclePuppey
50% · 53 games48% · 85 games
UndyingFata
Undying
Game 2prediction correct9:33
Team Secret 46%Tundra Esports 54%
The model gave 54% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 34:08.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
MedusaNisha
42% · 102 games51% · 160 games
Wraith KingSkiter
Wraith King
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnericeiceice
51% · 85 games42% · 67 games
Broodmother33
Broodmother
Sand King
Sand KingSumaiL
57% · 73 games47% · 49 games
Spirit BreakerNine
Spirit Breaker
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonPuppey
45% · 92 games48% · 102 games
WeaverSneyking
Weaver
Nyx Assassin
Nyx AssassinYapzOr
54% · 113 games61% · 87 games
Treant ProtectorFata
Treant Protector
Model check result
Model favoriteTundra Esports · 58%
Series resultTundra Esports 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2