Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 3 — Западная Европа · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Secretloss 1:2series probability
24%76%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Tundra Esportswin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Secret
Iooften banned
Puppey · 8 games
Enchantressoften banned
Puppey · 7 games
Doomoften banned
iceiceice · 6 games
Ember Spiritsignature
Nisha · 6 games
Pangolieroften banned
Nisha · 6 games
Tiny
YapzOr · 6 games
Chaos Knightoften banned
SumaiL · 5 games
Chenoften banned
Puppey · 5 games
Tundra Esports
Doomoften banned
33 · 22 games
Chaos Knightsignature
Skiter · 19 games
Pangoliersignature
Nine · 18 games
Iosignature
Sneyking · 16 games
Gyrocoptersignature
Skiter · 15 games
Grimstrokesignature
Sneyking · 13 games
Visagesignature
33 · 13 games
Weaversignature
Sneyking · 13 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
505 picks · 454 bans
Mars
494 picks · 691 bans
Bane
456 picks · 289 bans
Dragon Knight
436 picks · 534 bans
Sand King
397 picks · 549 bans
Storm Spirit
395 picks · 636 bans
Pangolier
374 picks · 624 bans
Grimstroke
359 picks · 318 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)42% vs 67%
Hero pool strength64% Tundra Esports
Head-to-head1 – 3
Model total76% Tundra Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct21:36
Team Secret 35%Tundra Esports 65%
The model gave 65% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 45:12.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
ZeusNisha
Alchemist33
RazorCrystallis
Winter WyvernNine
Beastmastericeiceice
Chaos KnightSkiter
ClockwerkPuppey
DazzleSneyking
TechiesZayac
WeaverSaksa
Game 2prediction missed36:24
Team Secret 36%Tundra Esports 64%
The model gave 64% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Team Secret in 1:00:54.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar AssassinCrystallis
Dragon KnightSkiter
PuckNisha
DawnbreakerNine
Marciiceiceice
Batrider33
ZeusZayac
Keeper of the LightSaksa
ClockwerkPuppey
RubickSneyking
Game 3prediction correct12:37
Team Secret 34%Tundra Esports 66%
The model gave 66% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 39:48.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MedusaCrystallis
Chaos KnightSkiter
PangolierNisha
ZeusNine
DoomZayac
Night Stalker33
Marciiceiceice
Monkey KingSaksa
ClockwerkPuppey
DazzleSneyking
Model check result
Model favoriteTundra Esports · 76%
Series resultTundra Esports 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3