The International 2022 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Secretloss 1:2series probability
54%46%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Tundra Esportswin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Secret
Chensignature
Puppey · 21 game
Tusksignature
Zayac · 19 games
Razoroften banned
Crystallis · 18 games
Marcisignature
Zayac · 17 games
Monkey Kingsignature
Crystallis · 16 games
Clockwerksignature
Puppey · 15 games
Dawnbreakersignature
Crystallis · 15 games
Nyx Assassinsignature
Zayac · 14 games
Tundra Esports
Doomsignature
33 · 28 games
Chaos Knightsignature
Skiter · 24 games
Visagesignature
33 · 21 game
Tinysignature
Saksa · 18 games
Beastmastersignature
33 · 17 games
Pangoliersignature
Nine · 16 games
Grimstrokesignature
Sneyking · 13 games
Snapfiresignature
Saksa · 13 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
453 picks · 333 bans
Marci
447 picks · 643 bans
Undying
320 picks · 532 bans
Death Prophet
268 picks · 428 bans
Enigma
262 picks · 819 bans
Pangolier
258 picks · 359 bans
Puck
246 picks · 572 bans
Snapfire
242 picks · 122 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)54% vs 41%
Hero pool strength53% Tundra Esports
Head-to-head2 – 5
Model total54% Team Secret
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed35:47
Team Secret 50%Tundra Esports 50%
The model gave 50% on Team Secret — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 1:07:06.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Monkey KingCrystallis
Outworld DestroyerNine
Ember SpiritNisha
Broodmother33
MagnusResolut1on
TinySaksa
DisruptorPuppey
MiranaSneyking
TuskZayac
Naga SirenSkiter
Game 2prediction correct40:25
Team Secret 51%Tundra Esports 49%
The model gave 51% on Team Secret — the game was taken by Team Secret in 44:52.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
DawnbreakerResolut1on
TerrorbladeSkiter
Drow RangerCrystallis
Primal BeastNine
PangolierNisha
Visage33
SilencerPuppey
ClockwerkSaksa
Nyx AssassinZayac
Crystal MaidenSneyking
Game 3prediction correct13:38
Team Secret 50%Tundra Esports 50%
The model gave 50% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 35:39.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
ZeusNisha
Chaos KnightSkiter
GyrocopterCrystallis
TuskNine
DawnbreakerResolut1on
Enigma33
Crystal MaidenPuppey
TinySaksa
Earth SpiritZayac
MiranaSneyking
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Secret · 54%
Series resultTundra Esports 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game2 of 3