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The International 10 (2021) · BO2
result vs prediction
Team Secretwin 2:0
series probability
30%70%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Vici Gamingloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Secret

Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
YapzOr · 10 games
80%
Magnus
Magnussignature
zai · 7 games
86%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Nisha · 7 games
57%
Leshrac
Leshracoften banned
Nisha · 6 games
17%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
YapzOr · 6 games
67%
Rubick
Rubick
YapzOr · 6 games
33%
Sven
Svenoften banned
MATUMBAMAN · 6 games
50%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
Puppey · 5 games
60%

Vici Gaming

Lion
Lion
Pyw · 24 games
58%
Spectre
Spectresignature
poyoyo · 23 games
78%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
ELeVeN · 22 games
68%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
ELeVeN · 22 games
73%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
Dy · 21 game
48%
Doom
Doomsignature
ELeVeN · 19 games
68%
Elder Titan
Elder Titansignature
Dy · 19 games
63%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinsignature
Ori · 19 games
74%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
299 picks · 180 bans
53%
Mars
Mars
287 picks · 396 bans
49%
Lina
Lina
278 picks · 559 bans
56%
Pangolier
Pangolier
260 picks · 370 bans
51%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
248 picks · 255 bans
58%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
241 picks · 88 bans
46%
Tidehunter
Tidehunter
241 picks · 404 bans
51%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
223 picks · 253 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)45% vs 50%
Hero pool strength55% Vici Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total70% Vici Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed20:4
Team Secret 41%Vici Gaming 59%
The model gave 59% on Vici Gaming — the game was taken by Team Secret in 28:56.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Tiny
TinyMATUMBAMAN
56% · 186 games47% · 192 games
Medusapoyoyo
Medusa
Puck
PuckNisha
47% · 242 games43% · 161 game
Storm SpiritOri
Storm Spirit
Magnus
Magnuszai
60% · 86 games53% · 200 games
TidehunterELeVeN
Tidehunter
Snapfire
SnapfireYapzOr
51% · 159 games44% · 152 games
HoodwinkPyw
Hoodwink
Ancient Apparition
Ancient ApparitionPuppey
51% · 159 games48% · 127 games
IoDy
Io
Game 2prediction missed29:19
Team Secret 38%Vici Gaming 62%
The model gave 62% on Vici Gaming — the game was taken by Team Secret in 48:55.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Tiny
TinyMATUMBAMAN
39% · 126 games61% · 29 games
NecrophosOri
Necrophos
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritNisha
47% · 65 games46% · 50 games
Spectrepoyoyo
Spectre
Slardar
Slardarzai
53% · 24 games54% · 66 games
EarthshakerELeVeN
Earthshaker
Silencer
SilencerPuppey
38% · 27 games52% · 74 games
Dark WillowPyw
Dark Willow
Mirana
MiranaYapzOr
55% · 102 games56% · 125 games
Elder TitanDy
Elder Titan
Model check result
Model favoriteVici Gaming · 70%
Series resultTeam Secret 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2