The International 2022: Last Chance · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Secretwin 2:0series probability
51%49%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Virtus.proloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Secret
Razoroften banned
Crystallis · 18 games
Monkey Kingsignature
Crystallis · 16 games
Chensignature
Puppey · 15 games
Clockwerksignature
Puppey · 15 games
Tusksignature
Zayac · 14 games
Enchantressoften banned
Puppey · 13 games
Beastmastersignature
Resolut1on · 11 games
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Resolut1on · 11 games
Virtus.pro
Marcisignature
yamich · 24 games
Doomoften banned
DM · 18 games
Skywrath Magesignature
Xakoda · 17 games
Tinysignature
yamich · 17 games
Dragon Knightsignature
DM · 16 games
Disruptorsignature
Xakoda · 15 games
Templar Assassinsignature
gpK~ · 15 games
Dazzlesignature
Xakoda · 14 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
526 picks · 411 bans
Marci
441 picks · 677 bans
Puck
311 picks · 727 bans
Dawnbreaker
309 picks · 424 bans
Death Prophet
299 picks · 483 bans
Winter Wyvern
279 picks · 351 bans
Batrider
252 picks · 842 bans
Undying
250 picks · 445 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 52%
Hero pool strength55% Virtus.pro
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total51% Team Secret
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct41:34
Team Secret 50%Virtus.pro 50%
The model gave 50% on Team Secret — the game was taken by Team Secret in 44:57.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
SniperCrystallis
LunaRAMZES666
BatriderNisha
BeastmasterDM
Dark SeerResolut1on
TinygpK~
Witch DoctorPuppey
Undyingyamich
Nyx AssassinZayac
DisruptorXakoda
Game 2prediction correct22:10
Team Secret 52%Virtus.pro 48%
The model gave 52% on Team Secret — the game was taken by Team Secret in 28:25.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
LinaNisha
LunaRAMZES666
Monkey KingCrystallis
UndyingDM
Primal BeastResolut1on
TuskgpK~
ChenPuppey
Clockwerkyamich
Nyx AssassinZayac
DisruptorXakoda
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Secret · 51%
Series resultTeam Secret 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2