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ESL One Raleigh 2025. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Secretwin 2:0
series probability
62%38%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Zero Tenacityloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Secret

Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Puppey · 11 games
36%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Ainkrad · 11 games
27%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
423 · 10 games
60%
Bounty Hunter
Bounty Hunter
Kyzko · 9 games
33%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
423 · 9 games
33%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinoften banned
Kyzko · 8 games
50%
Tusk
Tuskoften banned
Kyzko · 7 games
43%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
Kyzko · 6 games
50%

Zero Tenacity

Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
DaaD- · 19 games
63%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
jAMES · 18 games
39%
Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
LeBronDota · 16 games
56%
Lich
Lich
LeBronDota · 16 games
50%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
MikSa` · 14 games
36%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
Nefrit · 14 games
57%
Lion
Lion
Pablo · 12 games
42%
Ogre Magi
Ogre Magi
LeBronDota · 12 games
58%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Muerta
Muerta
440 picks · 355 bans
52%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
406 picks · 543 bans
55%
Batrider
Batrider
367 picks · 464 bans
50%
Lion
Lion
364 picks · 191 bans
55%
Pangolier
Pangolier
350 picks · 587 bans
45%
Tusk
Tusk
349 picks · 372 bans
46%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
348 picks · 556 bans
54%
Phoenix
Phoenix
343 picks · 379 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)39% vs 60%
Hero pool strength54% Zero Tenacity
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total62% Team Secret
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct28:9
Team Secret 55%Zero Tenacity 45%
The model gave 55% on Team Secret — the game was taken by Team Secret in 26:42.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Beastmaster
BeastmasterMikSa`
42% · 231 game53% · 168 games
SniperStojkov
Sniper
Magnus
MagnusParker
49% · 228 games53% · 420 games
TinyDaaD-
Tiny
Invoker
Invokerxn丶e
48% · 189 games52% · 192 games
DawnbreakerNefrit
Dawnbreaker
Clockwerk
ClockwerkPuppey
50% · 312 games51% · 275 games
MuertaPablo
Muerta
Lion
LionThiolicor
50% · 299 games52% · 204 games
PugnaLeBronDota
Pugna
Game 2prediction correct39:10
Team Secret 56%Zero Tenacity 44%
The model gave 56% on Team Secret — the game was taken by Team Secret in 29:07.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinParker
47% · 176 games53% · 101 game
SniperStojkov
Sniper
Timbersaw
TimbersawMikSa`
53% · 275 games48% · 259 games
PhoenixDaaD-
Phoenix
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritxn丶e
51% · 242 games56% · 187 games
BristlebackNefrit
Bristleback
Muerta
MuertaThiolicor
49% · 281 game47% · 308 games
ClockwerkLeBronDota
Clockwerk
Lich
LichPuppey
53% · 117 games44% · 236 games
Dark WillowPablo
Dark Willow
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Secret · 62%
Series resultTeam Secret 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2