Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 2 — Северная Америка · BO3
result vs predictionTSTeam Serpentloss 0:2
series probability
50%50%
probability at match start · final 0:2
SSneakewin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Serpent
No games played over 6 months.
Sneake
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
536 picks · 365 bans
Queen of Pain
470 picks · 571 bans
Mars
424 picks · 609 bans
Weaver
422 picks · 695 bans
Kunkka
349 picks · 543 bans
Spirit Breaker
340 picks · 572 bans
Snapfire
318 picks · 159 bans
Wraith King
278 picks · 366 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 57%
Hero pool strength50% Team Serpent
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total50% Team Serpent
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed30:29
Team Serpent 50%Sneake 50%
The model gave 50% on Team Serpent — the game was taken by Sneake in 37:33.
Game 2prediction missed17:24
Team Serpent 50%Sneake 50%
The model gave 50% on Team Serpent — the game was taken by Sneake in 33:47.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Serpent · 50%
Series resultSneake 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2