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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. Восточная Европа. Открытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Sexyloss 0:2
series probability
55%45%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Matreshka Teamwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Sexy

Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
Nefrit · 2 games
0%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
9Class · 2 games
50%
Riki
Rikioften banned
9Class · 2 games
100%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Moonlight · 1 game
0%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Nefrit · 1 game
0%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
9Class · 1 game
0%
Drow Ranger
Drow Rangeroften banned
7jesu · 1 game
0%
Huskar
Huskaroften banned
Moonlight · 1 game
100%

Matreshka Team

Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
JANTER · 4 games
50%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
egxrdemxn · 3 games
33%
Rubick
Rubick
Lagoona · 3 games
33%
Doom
Doomoften banned
egxrdemxn · 2 games
50%
Lycan
Lycanoften banned
egxrdemxn · 2 games
100%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Retsu · 2 games
0%
Silencer
Silencer
JANTER · 2 games
50%
Tiny
Tiny
Lagoona · 2 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
750 picks · 472 bans
51%
Tusk
Tusk
531 picks · 453 bans
49%
Tiny
Tiny
530 picks · 386 bans
51%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
528 picks · 578 bans
57%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
408 picks · 593 bans
54%
Snapfire
Snapfire
385 picks · 261 bans
45%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
374 picks · 623 bans
50%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
351 picks · 748 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)69% vs 71%
Hero pool strength52% Team Sexy
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total55% Team Sexy
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed18:45
Team Sexy 55%Matreshka Team 45%
The model gave 55% on Team Sexy — the game was taken by Matreshka Team in 41:22.
Game 2prediction missed
Team Sexy 55%Matreshka Team 45%
The model gave 55% on Team Sexy — the game was taken by Matreshka Team.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Sexy · 55%
Series resultMatreshka Team 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2