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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. Восточная Европа. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Sexyloss 0:2
series probability
65%35%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Matreshka Teamwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Sexy

Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
9Class · 12 games
75%
Lich
Lichsignature
Hduo · 10 games
80%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
9Class · 10 games
70%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Nefrit · 8 games
100%
Visage
Visagesignature
Nefrit · 8 games
63%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
Moonlight · 7 games
57%
Ursa
Ursasignature
7jesu · 7 games
71%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Moonlight · 6 games
83%

Matreshka Team

Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
JANTER · 8 games
63%
Rubick
Rubick
Lagoona · 8 games
38%
Ursa
Ursasignature
Retsu · 8 games
63%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Lagoona · 6 games
67%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
egxrdemxn · 5 games
40%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
Retsu · 5 games
40%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
egxrdemxn · 4 games
25%
Disruptor
Disruptor
JANTER · 4 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
727 picks · 623 bans
47%
Disruptor
Disruptor
599 picks · 529 bans
54%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
515 picks · 1271 bans
59%
Doom
Doom
515 picks · 998 bans
55%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
450 picks · 1141 bans
49%
Pangolier
Pangolier
444 picks · 916 bans
54%
Mirana
Mirana
425 picks · 224 bans
58%
Enchantress
Enchantress
419 picks · 607 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)70% vs 65%
Hero pool strength62% Team Sexy
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total65% Team Sexy
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed18:36
Team Sexy 58%Matreshka Team 42%
The model gave 58% on Team Sexy — the game was taken by Matreshka Team in 48:10.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Abaddon
Abaddon7jesu
45% · 53 games55% · 98 games
Templar AssassinRetsu
Templar Assassin
Pangolier
PangolierMirage
50% · 467 games46% · 214 games
DoommeLes
Doom
Underlord
UnderlordNefrit
44% · 144 games57% · 180 games
Void SpiritNattyNarwhal
Void Spirit
Windranger
Windranger9Class
49% · 126 games52% · 282 games
RubickLagoona
Rubick
Pugna
PugnaHduo
48% · 150 games54% · 166 games
Techiesdark
Techies
Game 2prediction missed9:27
Team Sexy 58%Matreshka Team 42%
The model gave 58% on Team Sexy — the game was taken by Matreshka Team in 21:34.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Lancer
Phantom Lancer7jesu
48% · 71 game56% · 31 game
MuertaRetsu
Muerta
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainMirage
45% · 172 games47% · 80 games
TimbersawNattyNarwhal
Timbersaw
Underlord
UnderlordNefrit
49% · 86 games54% · 218 games
BatridermeLes
Batrider
Techies
Techies9Class
50% · 162 games47% · 127 games
EnchantressLagoona
Enchantress
Pugna
PugnaHduo
53% · 86 games52% · 121 game
Clockwerkdark
Clockwerk
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Sexy · 65%
Series resultMatreshka Team 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2