Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. Восточная Европа. Открытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Sexywin 2:0series probability
47%53%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Misfitsloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Sexy
Death Prophetoften banned
Nefrit · 2 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
9Class · 2 games
Rikioften banned
9Class · 2 games
Batrideroften banned
Moonlight · 1 game
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Nefrit · 1 game
Dark Willow
9Class · 1 game
Drow Rangeroften banned
7jesu · 1 game
Huskaroften banned
Moonlight · 1 game
Misfits
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
746 picks · 474 bans
Tusk
531 picks · 457 bans
Treant Protector
528 picks · 578 bans
Tiny
527 picks · 388 bans
Nature's Prophet
408 picks · 592 bans
Snapfire
384 picks · 261 bans
Death Prophet
372 picks · 621 bans
Ember Spirit
351 picks · 747 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 67%
Hero pool strength52% Team Sexy
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total53% Misfits
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed4:22
Team Sexy 47%Misfits 53%
The model gave 53% on Misfits — the game was taken by Team Sexy in 22:46.
Game 2prediction missed11:36
Team Sexy 47%Misfits 53%
The model gave 53% on Misfits — the game was taken by Team Sexy in 26:42.
Model check result
Model favoriteMisfits · 53%
Series resultTeam Sexy 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2