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The International 2023 — Квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Sexyloss 1:2
series probability
72%28%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Natus Vincere Juniorwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Sexy

Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
9Class · 14 games
71%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
9Class · 11 games
73%
Lich
Lichsignature
Hduo · 10 games
80%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Nefrit · 9 games
100%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Moonlight · 9 games
78%
Visage
Visageoften banned
Nefrit · 9 games
56%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
Moonlight · 6 games
67%
Ursa
Ursasignature
7jesu · 6 games
83%

Natus Vincere Junior

Rubick
Rubick
Daze · 12 games
50%
Techies
Techiesoften banned
Daze · 12 games
42%
Mirana
Mirana
Riddys · 11 games
45%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Ri4man · 10 games
50%
Magnus
Magnussignature
pma · 10 games
60%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Daze · 9 games
44%
Tiny
Tiny
Ri4man · 8 games
50%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
pma · 7 games
43%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Techies
Techies
525 picks · 561 bans
52%
Rubick
Rubick
452 picks · 227 bans
46%
Batrider
Batrider
412 picks · 731 bans
53%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
367 picks · 643 bans
48%
Spirit Breaker
Spirit Breaker
353 picks · 351 bans
47%
Morphling
Morphling
341 picks · 712 bans
52%
Timbersaw
Timbersaw
331 picks · 798 bans
49%
Undying
Undying
326 picks · 520 bans
45%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)58% vs 40%
Hero pool strength62% Team Sexy
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total72% Team Sexy
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed22:37
Team Sexy 66%Natus Vincere Junior 34%
The model gave 66% on Team Sexy — the game was taken by Natus Vincere Junior in 41:47.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter7jesu
52% · 37 games48% · 57 games
Troll Warlordgotthejuice
Troll Warlord
Void Spirit
Void SpiritMirage
45% · 83 games49% · 333 games
Ember Spirittoshiyb
Ember Spirit
Beastmaster
BeastmasterNefrit
50% · 224 games49% · 47 games
Vengeful Spiritpma
Vengeful Spirit
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Mage9Class
56% · 108 games42% · 38 games
Ancient ApparitionRiddys
Ancient Apparition
Clockwerk
ClockwerkHduo
53% · 189 games52% · 166 games
MarciDaze
Marci
Game 2prediction correct34:19
Team Sexy 63%Natus Vincere Junior 37%
The model gave 63% on Team Sexy — the game was taken by Team Sexy in 33:11.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Lancer
Phantom Lancer7jesu
54% · 35 games43% · 88 games
Templar Assassingotthejuice
Templar Assassin
Dark Seer
Dark SeerNefrit
49% · 75 games43% · 41 game
Invokertoshiyb
Invoker
Void Spirit
Void SpiritMirage
57% · 86 games50% · 20 games
Vengeful Spiritpma
Vengeful Spirit
Monkey King
Monkey King9Class
48% · 105 games54% · 137 games
ClockwerkDaze
Clockwerk
Ancient Apparition
Ancient ApparitionHduo
47% · 23 games54% · 38 games
LionRiddys
Lion
Game 3prediction missed25:41
Team Sexy 61%Natus Vincere Junior 39%
The model gave 61% on Team Sexy — the game was taken by Natus Vincere Junior in 51:54.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritMirage
43% · 511 games51% · 287 games
Pangoliertoshiyb
Pangolier
Sven
Sven7jesu
46% · 76 games53% · 126 games
Slarkgotthejuice
Slark
Razor
RazorNefrit
51% · 60 games51% · 244 games
Doompma
Doom
Monkey King
Monkey King9Class
50% · 238 games51% · 210 games
BatriderDaze
Batrider
Ancient Apparition
Ancient ApparitionHduo
52% · 40 games54% · 58 games
LionRiddys
Lion
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Sexy · 72%
Series resultNatus Vincere Junior 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3