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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. Восточная Европа. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Sexywin 2:0
series probability
65%35%
probability at match start · final 2:0
No Sorryloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Sexy

Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
9Class · 10 games
70%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
9Class · 10 games
70%
Lich
Lichsignature
Hduo · 9 games
78%
Visage
Visagesignature
Nefrit · 8 games
63%
Ursa
Ursasignature
7jesu · 7 games
71%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Nefrit · 5 games
100%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
Moonlight · 5 games
40%
Disruptor
Disruptor
9Class · 5 games
80%

No Sorry

Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
BLACKARXANGEL · 19 games
47%
Ursa
Ursaoften banned
Dinozavrik · 17 games
47%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
BLACKARXANGEL · 14 games
57%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
Dodren · 13 games
38%
Rubick
Rubick
ArrOw · 12 games
42%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Blizzy · 11 games
73%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Dodren · 11 games
45%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Dominic · 9 games
44%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
996 picks · 694 bans
48%
Tiny
Tiny
642 picks · 474 bans
52%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
591 picks · 935 bans
54%
Disruptor
Disruptor
545 picks · 407 bans
55%
Tusk
Tusk
539 picks · 418 bans
48%
Snapfire
Snapfire
529 picks · 371 bans
45%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
516 picks · 1210 bans
50%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
506 picks · 383 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)65% vs 42%
Hero pool strength61% Team Sexy
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total65% Team Sexy
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct28:12
Team Sexy 60%No Sorry 40%
The model gave 60% on Team Sexy — the game was taken by Team Sexy in 26:25.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna
Luna7jesu
54% · 40 games45% · 44 games
RikiDinozavrik
Riki
Beastmaster
BeastmasterNefrit
56% · 181 game45% · 206 games
Death ProphetDominic
Death Prophet
Viper
ViperMoonlight
59% · 51 game46% · 15 games
Legion CommanderDodren
Legion Commander
Chen
ChenHduo
63% · 47 games51% · 30 games
TechiesFezor
Techies
Windranger
Windranger9Class
49% · 24 games35% · 48 games
LichBLACKARXANGEL
Lich
Game 2prediction correct27:11
Team Sexy 59%No Sorry 41%
The model gave 59% on Team Sexy — the game was taken by Team Sexy in 29:13.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Alchemist
Alchemist7jesu
48% · 96 games45% · 134 games
BloodseekerDinozavrik
Bloodseeker
Enigma
EnigmaNefrit
56% · 198 games45% · 174 games
ZeusDodren
Zeus
Death Prophet
Death ProphetMoonlight
49% · 240 games56% · 286 games
BeastmasterDominic
Beastmaster
Monkey King
Monkey King9Class
58% · 159 games49% · 59 games
TechiesFezor
Techies
Lich
LichHduo
38% · 50 games47% · 90 games
JakiroBLACKARXANGEL
Jakiro
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Sexy · 65%
Series resultTeam Sexy 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2