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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. Восточная Европа. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Sexyloss 1:2
series probability
52%48%
probability at match start · final 1:2
UALEIKUMNIHAOwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Sexy

Lich
Lichsignature
Hduo · 8 games
75%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
9Class · 8 games
75%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
9Class · 8 games
75%
Ursa
Ursasignature
7jesu · 6 games
67%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Nefrit · 5 games
100%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
Moonlight · 5 games
40%
Disruptor
Disruptor
9Class · 5 games
80%
Huskar
Huskaroften banned
Moonlight · 5 games
80%

UALEIKUMNIHAO

Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
Shergarat · 9 games
56%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
Palantimos · 7 games
71%
Treant Protector
Treant Protectorsignature
b1kA · 7 games
71%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Mary_y · 5 games
60%
Enigma
Enigmaoften banned
Shergarat · 5 games
60%
Undying
Undyingoften banned
Mary_y · 5 games
60%
Puck
Puckoften banned
hAze · 4 games
50%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
Palantimos · 4 games
75%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
995 picks · 674 bans
48%
Tiny
Tiny
659 picks · 483 bans
52%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
605 picks · 951 bans
53%
Tusk
Tusk
562 picks · 433 bans
48%
Snapfire
Snapfire
522 picks · 356 bans
46%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
516 picks · 1151 bans
51%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
509 picks · 497 bans
55%
Disruptor
Disruptor
496 picks · 354 bans
56%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 72%
Hero pool strength54% Team Sexy
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total52% Team Sexy
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed33:46
Team Sexy 53%UALEIKUMNIHAO 47%
The model gave 53% on Team Sexy — the game was taken by UALEIKUMNIHAO in 56:25.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Visage
VisageNefrit
64% · 132 games52% · 118 games
BloodseekerPalantimos
Bloodseeker
Slark
Slark7jesu
50% · 165 games47% · 191 game
BatriderhAze
Batrider
Primal Beast
Primal BeastMoonlight
49% · 231 game44% · 213 games
DoomShergarat
Doom
Monkey King
Monkey King9Class
56% · 242 games44% · 484 games
Rubickb1kA
Rubick
Mirana
MiranaHduo
51% · 364 games44% · 128 games
PhoenixMary_y
Phoenix
Game 2prediction correct28:14
Team Sexy 53%UALEIKUMNIHAO 47%
The model gave 53% on Team Sexy — the game was taken by Team Sexy in 29:34.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
Ursa7jesu
50% · 156 games48% · 179 games
DoomShergarat
Doom
Visage
VisageNefrit
60% · 136 games42% · 31 game
AbaddonPalantimos
Abaddon
Primal Beast
Primal BeastMoonlight
48% · 229 games48% · 176 games
BatriderhAze
Batrider
Monkey King
Monkey King9Class
56% · 232 games50% · 195 games
EnchantressMary_y
Enchantress
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaidenHduo
50% · 227 games45% · 399 games
Rubickb1kA
Rubick
Game 3prediction missed12:29
Team Sexy 51%UALEIKUMNIHAO 49%
The model gave 51% on Team Sexy — the game was taken by UALEIKUMNIHAO in 31:51.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Spectre
Spectre7jesu
50% · 41 game52% · 187 games
TerrorbladePalantimos
Terrorblade
Visage
VisageNefrit
64% · 122 games40% · 213 games
DoomShergarat
Doom
Primal Beast
Primal BeastMoonlight
51% · 186 games47% · 157 games
Dragon KnighthAze
Dragon Knight
Rubick
Rubick9Class
47% · 482 games45% · 129 games
PhoenixMary_y
Phoenix
Silencer
SilencerHduo
51% · 177 games53% · 322 games
Disruptorb1kA
Disruptor
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Sexy · 52%
Series resultUALEIKUMNIHAO 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3