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BIX Invitationals Summer · BO2
result vs prediction
Team SMGloss 0:2
series probability
68%32%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Army Geniuseswin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team SMG

Lion
Lionsignature
Roddgeee · 10 games
60%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
AhFu · 9 games
44%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
AhFu · 8 games
63%
Tusk
Tusk
AhFu · 8 games
50%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinsignature
AhFu · 6 games
83%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
kpii · 5 games
40%
Brewmaster
Brewmaster
kpii · 5 games
80%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
vtFαded · 5 games
80%

Army Geniuses

Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritsignature
Lym- · 13 games
77%
Mirana
Mirana
Lym- · 8 games
38%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
MamangDaya · 7 games
43%
Puck
Puckoften banned
db- · 6 games
50%
Huskar
Huskaroften banned
MamangDaya · 5 games
40%
Juggernaut
Juggernautoften banned
db- · 5 games
60%
Mars
Marsoften banned
woMy · 5 games
60%
Pugna
Pugnaoften banned
woMy · 5 games
20%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
479 picks · 188 bans
50%
Snapfire
Snapfire
376 picks · 209 bans
50%
Mars
Mars
365 picks · 573 bans
49%
Puck
Puck
347 picks · 852 bans
49%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparition
319 picks · 461 bans
57%
Tiny
Tiny
319 picks · 244 bans
50%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassin
310 picks · 595 bans
58%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
308 picks · 288 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 43%
Hero pool strength54% Team SMG
Head-to-head2 – 1
Model total68% Team SMG
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed21:39
Team SMG 60%Army Geniuses 40%
The model gave 60% on Team SMG — the game was taken by Army Geniuses in 36:20.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Axe
AxeMidOne
34% · 50 games42% · 41 game
Rikidb-
Riki
Puck
PuckMoon
53% · 166 games52% · 191 game
Dragon KnightMamangDaya
Dragon Knight
Razor
Razorkpii
58% · 27 games48% · 39 games
BroodmotherwoMy
Broodmother
Phoenix
PhoenixAhFu
46% · 139 games56% · 170 games
MiranaLym-
Mirana
Clockwerk
ClockwerkRoddgeee
54% · 59 games
Game 2prediction missed13:43
Team SMG 59%Army Geniuses 41%
The model gave 59% on Team SMG — the game was taken by Army Geniuses in 35:55.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Weaver
WeaverMidOne
55% · 39 games53% · 125 games
Wraith Kingdb-
Wraith King
Leshrac
LeshracMoon
49% · 48 games59% · 52 games
MagnusMamangDaya
Magnus
Doom
Doomkpii
39% · 45 games45% · 46 games
BloodseekerwoMy
Bloodseeker
Lion
LionAhFu
50% · 120 games51% · 95 games
RubickLym-
Rubick
Abaddon
AbaddonRoddgeee
44% · 66 games
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam SMG · 68%
Series resultArmy Geniuses 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2