?
arrow_backBack to match
Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 1 — Закрытые квалификации · BO2
result vs prediction
Team SMGloss 1:1
series probability
26%74%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Assaultloss 1:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team SMG

Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
Mushi · 4 games
0%
Brewmaster
Brewmaster
ninjaboogie · 3 games
0%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
AhFu · 3 games
0%
Mirana
Miranaoften banned
AhFu · 3 games
0%
Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
Mushi · 3 games
0%
Chaos Knight
Chaos Knight
Mushi · 2 games
0%
Lina
Linaoften banned
AhFu · 2 games
0%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinoften banned
ninjaboogie · 2 games
50%

Assault

Tusk
Tusk
rayy · 3 games
100%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
Gy · 2 games
100%
Disruptor
Disruptor
rayy · 2 games
100%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Gy · 2 games
50%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
JoHnNy · 2 games
50%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
JoHnNy · 2 games
50%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Gy · 1 game
0%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
rayy · 1 game
0%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
Mars
54 picks · 98 bans
45%
Puck
Puck
43 picks · 109 bans
45%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
39 picks · 30 bans
60%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
39 picks · 59 bans
56%
Phoenix
Phoenix
34 picks · 39 bans
55%
Monkey King
Monkey King
31 picks · 64 bans
43%
Mirana
Mirana
29 picks · 33 bans
42%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassin
28 picks · 89 bans
59%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)20% vs 60%
Hero pool strength69% Assault
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total74% Assault
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed43:23
Team SMG 39%Assault 61%
The model gave 61% on Assault — the game was taken by Team SMG in 35:48.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Juggernaut
JuggernautvtFαded
little datalittle data
TechiesJoHnNy
Techies
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonMushi
little datalittle data
AxeGy
Axe
Lina
LinaAhFu
little datalittle data
Clockwerkrayy
Clockwerk
Earth Spirit
Earth SpiritOhaiyo
little data
Game 2prediction correct30:34
Team SMG 36%Assault 64%
The model gave 64% on Assault — the game was taken by Assault in 40:37.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Faceless Void
Faceless VoidvtFαded
little datalittle data
BeastmasterGy
Beastmaster
Mirana
MiranaMushi
little datalittle data
TuskJoHnNy
Tusk
Earth Spirit
Earth SpiritOhaiyo
little datalittle data
Oraclerayy
Oracle
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonAhFu
little data
Model check result
Model favoriteAssault · 74%
Accuracy by game1 of 2