Moon Studio Spring Trophy · BO3
result vs prediction
Team SMGloss 0:2series probability
27%73%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Aster.Arieswin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team SMG
Earth Spirit
Ohaiyo · 5 games
Death Prophetoften banned
Mushi · 4 games
Mirana
AhFu · 4 games
Brewmaster
ninjaboogie · 3 games
Linaoften banned
AhFu · 3 games
Tidehunteroften banned
Mushi · 3 games
Chaos Knight
Mushi · 2 games
Faceless Voidoften banned
vtFαded · 2 games
Aster.Aries
Death Prophetoften banned
生死 · 7 games
Marsoften banned
生死 · 7 games
Abaddon
Fantasy · 5 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
Ulu · 4 games
Void Spiritoften banned
phoenix · 4 games
Weaveroften banned
生死 · 4 games
Grimstroke
Fantasy · 3 games
Morphlingoften banned
Ulu · 3 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
385 picks · 853 bans
Void Spirit
361 picks · 513 bans
Mars
311 picks · 561 bans
Death Prophet
278 picks · 491 bans
Earth Spirit
276 picks · 238 bans
Rubick
253 picks · 155 bans
Keeper of the Light
238 picks · 516 bans
Wraith King
236 picks · 374 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)17% vs 45%
Hero pool strength56% Aster.Aries
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total73% Aster.Aries
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed23:8
Team SMG 35%Aster.Aries 65%
The model gave 65% on Aster.Aries — the game was taken by Team SMG in 24:18.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
LifestealervtFαded
Phantom AssassinUlu
TidehunterOhaiyo
Batrider生死
Shadow ShamanMushi
Void Spiritphoenix
TuskAhFu
PhoenixFantasy
Game 2prediction missed28:20
Team SMG 34%Aster.Aries 66%
The model gave 66% on Aster.Aries — the game was taken by Team SMG in 30:16.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Death ProphetvtFαded
JuggernautUlu
BrewmasterOhaiyo
Puckphoenix
Earth SpiritAhFu
Lycan生死
LionMushi
GrimstrokeFantasy
Model check result
Model favoriteAster.Aries · 73%
Series resultAster.Aries 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 2