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The International 2023 — Квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Team SMGwin 2:0
series probability
40%60%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Blacklist Internationalloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team SMG

Rubick
Rubicksignature
Poloson · 15 games
60%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightsignature
AhFu · 12 games
67%
Mirana
Mirana
Poloson · 12 games
42%
Venomancer
Venomancersignature
Jaunuel · 10 games
70%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Jaunuel · 7 games
29%
Earthshaker
Earthshakeroften banned
AhFu · 7 games
57%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Moon · 7 games
43%
Kunkka
Kunkka
Moon · 7 games
43%

Blacklist International

No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
459 picks · 226 bans
47%
Techies
Techies
443 picks · 480 bans
51%
Batrider
Batrider
395 picks · 655 bans
53%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
366 picks · 600 bans
50%
Morphling
Morphling
333 picks · 695 bans
52%
Timbersaw
Timbersaw
326 picks · 765 bans
49%
Undying
Undying
308 picks · 516 bans
46%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
301 picks · 627 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)63% vs 41%
Hero pool strength53% Team SMG
Head-to-head2 – 1
Model total60% Blacklist International
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed35:23
Team SMG 40%Blacklist International 60%
The model gave 60% on Blacklist International — the game was taken by Team SMG in 49:28.
Game 2prediction missed25:21
Team SMG 40%Blacklist International 60%
The model gave 60% on Blacklist International — the game was taken by Team SMG in 41:55.
Model check result
Model favoriteBlacklist International · 60%
Series resultTeam SMG 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2