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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. ЮВА. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Team SMGloss 1:2
series probability
61%39%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Bleed Esportswin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team SMG

Bane
Banesignature
Poloson · 10 games
80%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
AhFu · 9 games
78%
Magnus
Magnusoften banned
MidOne · 7 games
57%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Moon · 7 games
71%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painsignature
Moon · 7 games
71%
Undying
Undyingoften banned
Poloson · 6 games
50%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Moon · 5 games
40%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
MidOne · 5 games
60%

Bleed Esports

Undying
Undyingoften banned
Kuku · 11 games
55%
Morphling
Morphlingsignature
Topson · 10 games
70%
Tiny
Tiny
Topson · 10 games
40%
Venomancer
Venomanceroften banned
Xepher · 10 games
50%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
Topson · 8 games
63%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Xepher · 7 games
43%
Marci
Marcioften banned
Xepher · 7 games
43%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
Kuku · 7 games
71%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
351 picks · 340 bans
49%
Tusk
Tusk
340 picks · 332 bans
58%
Mirana
Mirana
240 picks · 243 bans
55%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
224 picks · 146 bans
54%
Rubick
Rubick
217 picks · 175 bans
58%
Pangolier
Pangolier
208 picks · 545 bans
53%
Leshrac
Leshrac
198 picks · 417 bans
58%
Snapfire
Snapfire
191 picks · 111 bans
44%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)40% vs 50%
Hero pool strength53% Team SMG
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total61% Team SMG
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct34:41
Team SMG 54%Bleed Esports 46%
The model gave 54% on Team SMG — the game was taken by Team SMG in 1:04:13.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Monkey King
Monkey KingMoon
44% · 69 games55% · 71 game
SniperJaCkky
Sniper
Primal Beast
Primal BeastMidOne
50% · 49 games56% · 117 games
Treant ProtectorDuBu
Treant Protector
Tiny
TinyBoomy
51% · 143 games46% · 115 games
DisruptorPlayHard
Disruptor
Phoenix
PhoenixAhFu
48% · 42 games
Game 2prediction missed15:38
Team SMG 55%Bleed Esports 45%
The model gave 55% on Team SMG — the game was taken by Bleed Esports in 38:33.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Puck
PuckMoon
47% · 231 game49% · 160 games
Monkey KingJaCkky
Monkey King
Visage
VisageMidOne
55% · 124 games50% · 337 games
TinyPlayHard
Tiny
Mirana
MiranaAhFu
54% · 230 games48% · 105 games
DisruptorDuBu
Disruptor
Riki
RikiBoomy
44% · 17 games
Game 3prediction missed18:32
Team SMG 54%Bleed Esports 46%
The model gave 54% on Team SMG — the game was taken by Bleed Esports in 49:59.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Slark
SlarkMoon
47% · 33 games48% · 46 games
Naga SirenJaCkky
Naga Siren
Earthshaker
EarthshakerMidOne
46% · 27 games55% · 133 games
MiranaPlayHard
Mirana
Phoenix
PhoenixAhFu
51% · 38 games50% · 59 games
DisruptorDuBu
Disruptor
Tusk
TuskBoomy
50% · 140 games
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam SMG · 61%
Series resultBleed Esports 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3