Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 2 — ЮВА 2-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Team SMGwin 2:0series probability
64%36%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Cignal Ultraloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team SMG
Brewmaster
AhFu · 6 games
Death Prophetoften banned
vtFαded · 6 games
Earth Spiritoften banned
AhFu · 6 games
Tusk
AhFu · 6 games
Marsoften banned
Ohaiyo · 5 games
Tidehunteroften banned
Mushi · 5 games
Weaveroften banned
vtFαded · 5 games
Mirana
AhFu · 4 games
Cignal Ultra
Phantom Assassinsignature
Abat · 9 games
Marsoften banned
Jamesy · 5 games
Sand King
Jamesy · 5 games
Rikioften banned
Abat · 4 games
Ursaoften banned
Abat · 4 games
Anti-Mageoften banned
Abat · 3 games
Leshracoften banned
Jamesy · 3 games
Puckoften banned
Jamesy · 3 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
416 picks · 942 bans
Void Spirit
380 picks · 540 bans
Death Prophet
347 picks · 705 bans
Mars
328 picks · 549 bans
Grimstroke
313 picks · 303 bans
Tusk
294 picks · 220 bans
Lion
280 picks · 154 bans
Earth Spirit
275 picks · 283 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)53% vs 27%
Hero pool strength55% Cignal Ultra
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total64% Team SMG
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct40:14
Team SMG 56%Cignal Ultra 44%
The model gave 56% on Team SMG — the game was taken by Team SMG in 24:36.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Monkey KingMidOne
Troll WarlordAb1ng
Chaos Knightkpii
MarsJamesy
EnchantressRoddgeee
GrimstrokeAhFu
Game 2prediction correct36:18
Team SMG 59%Cignal Ultra 41%
The model gave 59% on Team SMG — the game was taken by Team SMG in 27:30.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
LifestealerMidOne
JuggernautAb1ng
Slardarkpii
Storm SpiritJamesy
SnapfireAhFu
Elder TitanRoddgeee
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam SMG · 64%
Series resultTeam SMG 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2