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PNXBET Invitationals Southeast Asia Season 2 · BO2
result vs prediction
Team SMGwin 2:0
series probability
72%28%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Cignal Ultraloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team SMG

Lion
Lion
Roddgeee · 11 games
55%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
AhFu · 9 games
44%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
AhFu · 8 games
63%
Tusk
Tusk
AhFu · 8 games
50%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinsignature
AhFu · 6 games
83%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
kpii · 5 games
40%
Brewmaster
Brewmaster
kpii · 5 games
80%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
Moon · 5 games
80%

Cignal Ultra

Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassinoften banned
Abat · 7 games
57%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Jamesy · 6 games
33%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Jamesy · 4 games
25%
Riki
Rikioften banned
Abat · 4 games
25%
Anti-Mage
Anti-Mageoften banned
Abat · 3 games
67%
Juggernaut
Juggernautoften banned
Ab1ng · 3 games
0%
Leshrac
Leshracoften banned
Jamesy · 3 games
33%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Jamesy · 2 games
100%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
465 picks · 183 bans
51%
Snapfire
Snapfire
369 picks · 206 bans
50%
Mars
Mars
352 picks · 562 bans
49%
Puck
Puck
339 picks · 830 bans
49%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparition
316 picks · 465 bans
56%
Tiny
Tiny
310 picks · 240 bans
51%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassin
308 picks · 604 bans
58%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
293 picks · 276 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 27%
Hero pool strength58% Team SMG
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total72% Team SMG
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct24:44
Team SMG 72%Cignal Ultra 28%
The model gave 72% on Team SMG — the game was taken by Team SMG in 32:00.
Game 2prediction correct11:27
Team SMG 72%Cignal Ultra 28%
The model gave 72% on Team SMG — the game was taken by Team SMG in 20:24.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam SMG · 72%
Series resultTeam SMG 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2