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BTS Pro Series Season 8. ЮВА · BO2
result vs prediction
Team SMGwin 2:0
series probability
57%43%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Execrationloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team SMG

Lion
Lion
Roddgeee · 19 games
58%
Abaddon
Abaddonsignature
Roddgeee · 14 games
64%
Brewmaster
Brewmastersignature
kpii · 14 games
79%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinsignature
AhFu · 13 games
69%
Mars
Marsoften banned
kpii · 12 games
58%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
AhFu · 11 games
36%
Tusk
Tusksignature
AhFu · 11 games
64%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvernsignature
Moon · 11 games
91%

Execration

Puck
Pucksignature
Bob · 15 games
60%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparitionsignature
RR · 14 games
71%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
Bob · 14 games
50%
Abaddon
Abaddonsignature
RR · 12 games
67%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
RR · 12 games
58%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
Yowe · 12 games
58%
Doom
Doomsignature
Force · 10 games
80%
Elder Titan
Elder Titansignature
RR · 10 games
80%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
376 picks · 170 bans
51%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
349 picks · 126 bans
48%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassin
258 picks · 519 bans
57%
Lina
Lina
255 picks · 418 bans
52%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
254 picks · 343 bans
47%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvern
248 picks · 243 bans
54%
Luna
Luna
246 picks · 336 bans
52%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
236 picks · 495 bans
57%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)51% vs 40%
Hero pool strength51% Team SMG
Head-to-head4 – 1
Model total57% Team SMG
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct41:33
Team SMG 55%Execration 45%
The model gave 55% on Team SMG — the game was taken by Team SMG in 33:16.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lina
LinaMoon
52% · 36 games45% · 74 games
LycanTino-
Lycan
Monkey King
Monkey KingMidOne
62% · 38 games56% · 39 games
Shadow FiendBob
Shadow Fiend
Bloodseeker
Bloodseekerkpii
43% · 28 games41% · 52 games
OmniknightRR
Omniknight
Earthshaker
EarthshakerAhFu
64% · 20 games
Pangolier
PangolierRoddgeee
50% · 43 games
Game 2prediction correct45:28
Team SMG 52%Execration 48%
The model gave 52% on Team SMG — the game was taken by Team SMG in 29:05.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Silencer
SilencerMoon
44% · 8 games47% · 58 games
BloodseekerTino-
Bloodseeker
Lycan
Lycankpii
54% · 36 games45% · 25 games
Queen of PainBob
Queen of Pain
Monkey King
Monkey KingMidOne
53% · 58 games49% · 95 games
Nyx AssassinRR
Nyx Assassin
Earthshaker
EarthshakerAhFu
62% · 33 games
Disruptor
DisruptorRoddgeee
44% · 43 games
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam SMG · 57%
Series resultTeam SMG 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2