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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. ЮВА. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Team SMGloss 0:2
series probability
52%48%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Execrationwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team SMG

Bane
Banesignature
Poloson · 10 games
80%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
AhFu · 9 games
78%
Magnus
Magnus
MidOne · 7 games
57%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Moon · 7 games
71%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painsignature
Moon · 7 games
71%
Undying
Undyingoften banned
Poloson · 6 games
50%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Moon · 5 games
60%
Enigma
Enigmaoften banned
AhFu · 5 games
80%

Execration

Visage
Visagesignature
Tino- · 15 games
73%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Bob · 10 games
50%
Earthshaker
Earthshakersignature
Shanks · 10 games
60%
Enigma
Enigmasignature
Tino- · 10 games
70%
Marci
Marcisignature
Palos · 10 games
60%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinsignature
Shanks · 10 games
60%
Pudge
Pudgeoften banned
Palos · 9 games
56%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Bob · 8 games
25%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
343 picks · 335 bans
49%
Tusk
Tusk
330 picks · 329 bans
58%
Mirana
Mirana
227 picks · 237 bans
54%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
220 picks · 145 bans
54%
Pangolier
Pangolier
200 picks · 536 bans
53%
Rubick
Rubick
199 picks · 163 bans
59%
Leshrac
Leshrac
197 picks · 415 bans
59%
Silencer
Silencer
186 picks · 224 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 53%
Hero pool strength53% Team SMG
Head-to-head2 – 2
Model total52% Team SMG
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct53:38
Team SMG 48%Execration 52%
The model gave 52% on Execration — the game was taken by Execration in 1:00:44.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Zeus
ZeusMoon
40% · 175 games52% · 49 games
UrsaPalos
Ursa
Doom
DoomMidOne
54% · 119 games52% · 147 games
PuckBob
Puck
Dark Willow
Dark WillowBoomy
49% · 31 game57% · 91 game
EnigmaTino-
Enigma
Treant Protector
Treant ProtectorAhFu
44% · 100 games52% · 138 games
MarciShanks
Marci
Game 2prediction missed44:51
Team SMG 51%Execration 49%
The model gave 51% on Team SMG — the game was taken by Execration in 52:14.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritMoon
45% · 163 games51% · 157 games
LinaPalos
Lina
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful SpiritMidOne
53% · 43 games42% · 174 games
BatriderBob
Batrider
Tiny
TinyBoomy
52% · 450 games49% · 173 games
Keeper of the LightTino-
Keeper of the Light
Mirana
MiranaAhFu
58% · 141 game53% · 293 games
MarciShanks
Marci
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam SMG · 52%
Series resultExecration 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 2