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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. ЮВА. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Team SMGloss 1:2
series probability
32%68%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Execrationwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team SMG

Rubick
Rubick
Poloson · 19 games
47%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightsignature
MidOne · 15 games
67%
Mirana
Mirana
Poloson · 13 games
38%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Boomy · 11 games
55%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Moon · 9 games
33%
Earthshaker
Earthshaker
AhFu · 8 games
50%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
Moon · 8 games
50%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Moon · 8 games
63%

Execration

Visage
Visageoften banned
Tino- · 24 games
58%
Marci
Marcisignature
Shanks · 23 games
65%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Bob · 21 game
52%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Bob · 18 games
39%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Shanks · 16 games
56%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Tino- · 15 games
53%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Tino- · 14 games
79%
Rubick
Rubick
Shanks · 14 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
695 picks · 598 bans
47%
Disruptor
Disruptor
569 picks · 492 bans
54%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
463 picks · 1125 bans
59%
Doom
Doom
457 picks · 834 bans
55%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
410 picks · 1053 bans
50%
Enchantress
Enchantress
388 picks · 550 bans
50%
Pangolier
Pangolier
387 picks · 843 bans
54%
Mirana
Mirana
386 picks · 212 bans
57%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)40% vs 41%
Hero pool strength54% Execration
Head-to-head2 – 3
Model total68% Execration
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed41:22
Team SMG 40%Execration 60%
The model gave 60% on Execration — the game was taken by Team SMG in 50:37.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Slark
SlarkMidOne
56% · 124 games54% · 52 games
MedusaPalos
Medusa
Rubick
RubickJaunuel
50% · 342 games43% · 170 games
DoomTino-
Doom
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonAhFu
48% · 31 game49% · 265 games
Ember SpiritBob
Ember Spirit
45% · 10 games
Vengeful SpiritShanks
Vengeful Spirit
Game 2prediction correct21:34
Team SMG 40%Execration 60%
The model gave 60% on Execration — the game was taken by Execration in 34:52.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lone Druid
Lone DruidMidOne
49% · 26 games52% · 37 games
AlchemistPalos
Alchemist
Techies
TechiesAhFu
49% · 101 game58% · 33 games
Templar AssassinBob
Templar Assassin
Lich
LichJaunuel
45% · 65 games50% · 33 games
UnderlordTino-
Underlord
50% · 89 games
DisruptorShanks
Disruptor
Game 3prediction correct37:20
Team SMG 42%Execration 58%
The model gave 58% on Execration — the game was taken by Execration in 56:53.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Pangolier
PangolierMidOne
52% · 310 games54% · 103 games
Templar AssassinBob
Templar Assassin
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the LightAhFu
50% · 178 games52% · 115 games
Void SpiritPalos
Void Spirit
Venomancer
VenomancerJaunuel
44% · 65 games53% · 67 games
UnderlordTino-
Underlord
45% · 268 games
RubickShanks
Rubick
Model check result
Model favoriteExecration · 68%
Series resultExecration 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3