Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022 — ЮВА. Финал · BO3
result vs prediction
Team SMGwin 2:0series probability
38%62%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Fnaticloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team SMG
Earthshakersignature
AhFu · 28 games
Bloodseekersignature
Roddgeee · 19 games
Linasignature
Moon · 14 games
Monkey Kingsignature
MidOne · 14 games
Elder Titansignature
AhFu · 13 games
Grimstroke
AhFu · 13 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Moon · 12 games
Pangoliersignature
Roddgeee · 12 games
Fnatic
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
532 picks · 378 bans
Mars
456 picks · 643 bans
Queen of Pain
430 picks · 520 bans
Weaver
416 picks · 854 bans
Snapfire
352 picks · 180 bans
Kunkka
332 picks · 531 bans
Spirit Breaker
332 picks · 522 bans
Wraith King
270 picks · 303 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)45% vs 64%
Hero pool strength60% Team SMG
Head-to-head2 – 2
Model total62% Fnatic
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed53:27
Team SMG 38%Fnatic 62%
The model gave 62% on Fnatic — the game was taken by Team SMG in 49:08.
Game 2prediction missed50:24
Team SMG 38%Fnatic 62%
The model gave 62% on Fnatic — the game was taken by Team SMG in 40:00.
Model check result
Model favoriteFnatic · 62%
Series resultTeam SMG 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2