BTS Pro Series Season 6. ЮВА · BO3
result vs prediction
Team SMGloss 0:2series probability
66%34%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Lilgunwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team SMG
Death Prophetoften banned
vtFαded · 7 games
Earth Spiritoften banned
AhFu · 7 games
Grimstrokeoften banned
AhFu · 7 games
Tidehunteroften banned
Mushi · 7 games
Brewmaster
ninjaboogie · 6 games
Tusk
AhFu · 6 games
Juggernautoften banned
MidOne · 5 games
Linaoften banned
AhFu · 5 games
Lilgun
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
385 picks · 997 bans
Lion
380 picks · 212 bans
Mars
371 picks · 620 bans
Grimstroke
355 picks · 362 bans
Snapfire
317 picks · 184 bans
Tusk
293 picks · 221 bans
Tiny
286 picks · 196 bans
Death Prophet
281 picks · 617 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)48% vs 29%
Hero pool strength52% Lilgun
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total66% Team SMG
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed10:35
Team SMG 66%Lilgun 34%
The model gave 66% on Team SMG — the game was taken by Lilgun in 21:55.
Game 2prediction missed16:32
Team SMG 66%Lilgun 34%
The model gave 66% on Team SMG — the game was taken by Lilgun in 24:12.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam SMG · 66%
Series resultLilgun 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2