The International 10. Региональные отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Team SMGwin 2:0series probability
61%39%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Lilgunloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team SMG
Death Prophetoften banned
vtFαded · 8 games
Grimstroke
AhFu · 8 games
Tidehunteroften banned
kpii · 8 games
Brewmaster
kpii · 7 games
Earth Spiritoften banned
AhFu · 7 games
Lion
Mushi · 7 games
Tusk
AhFu · 7 games
Linaoften banned
AhFu · 6 games
Lilgun
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
447 picks · 189 bans
Snapfire
372 picks · 207 bans
Mars
365 picks · 580 bans
Puck
359 picks · 862 bans
Grimstroke
335 picks · 302 bans
Tiny
325 picks · 240 bans
Ancient Apparition
303 picks · 420 bans
Centaur Warrunner
293 picks · 401 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)52% vs 27%
Hero pool strength53% Lilgun
Head-to-head0 – 2
Model total61% Team SMG
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct47:38
Team SMG 61%Lilgun 39%
The model gave 61% on Team SMG — the game was taken by Team SMG in 46:05.
Game 2prediction correct35:27
Team SMG 61%Lilgun 39%
The model gave 61% on Team SMG — the game was taken by Team SMG in 36:59.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam SMG · 61%
Series resultTeam SMG 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2